Friday, December 18, 2009

The Specialist

In my early years of fantasy basketball I thought it was all about stacking my team with the top talent, and I’m not so much saying that isn’t the strategy, but you have to also realize that it’s impossible. You’re not going to end the season with a team of Tier 1, 2, 3 players, or if you do, please send me next years invite. But likely you’re in a league where it isn’t possible and I’m here to alert you to that. These Buy Low players we get are great and certainly help our squad, but there are only so many during a season. And to be honest, I wouldn’t advise carrying more than three or four at a time. It’s best to grab a few, let them bounce back, and then work for more. As an example, I started by grabbing Butler, Stephen Jackson, Gerald Wallace (there was a couple weeks that due to FG% he was a buy low), and I bought Antawn Jamison cheap while he was injured. OK, so this was it, and I waited until these guys showed me they were worth the investment (every single one was) and just now I’m sticking my head back out there for some more. Most recently I added Salmons and I’m looking into others too. I do not want to get caught at the end of the season with more than TWO buy low guys that don’t pan out. It’s rare that this will happen, but better to be SAFE than SORRY.
 
OK back to the post. So we can’t really have a 10 man roster and have 10 Tier 1, 2, 3 guys. If we focus too much on trying to do that we run the risk of having a bunch of ongoing trade offers, getting a bunch of rejections, and ignoring those last 3 guys on your roster than have an impact. Let’s talk about those players for a minute.
 
99% of the players in any fantasy league judge the viability of an add/drop player or a player traded for by their current rank, whether it be based on yahoo, ESPN or a third party system. The problem with Rankings is that, while working well for players 1-80, they don’t do much good past that. Here’s why: every category in fantasy basketball is equally weighted and ranking systems look more favorably on players that ‘fill out the stat sheet’. That is, it’s your contribution in a category, as well as the number of categories you fill up. Thus, a ranking system completely misses the value of The Specialist.
 
A Specialist is a player that gives uninspiring stats in all categories except one or two if they are related. He’s your PF that drops 8 points a game, but also pulls down 9 boards and 1.3 blocks. He’s your guard that drops 13 points a game, but snakes 2.1 steals and drops 1.3 treys. These guys will not be ranked very high, but have IMMENSE value to your team as those bottom starters. If you’re sittin here looking at your Sauce, and realizing your weak in steals, sure we can try to finagle a big trade for Rajon Rondo and move big parts around, OR we can grab a cheap specialist off the WW or through trade with another team, giving up a player who might ‘appear’ to have more value, but does your squad no good.
 
This was my number one reason for getting John salmons through trade. When Kevin Martin went down, I lost a significant number of treys. My team also has a generally low FG%, so I knew I needed a relatively high FG% three point shooter. Moreover, I had Courtney Lee on my team, who is a steals specialist and with Chris Paul, I have no need for more steals. My Sauce confirmed it all, down in treys and up in steals. Making that trade gave me a cheap guy who will sit in my UTIL slot earning me the treys I need. Sure, Courtney Lee is ranked higher right now, so it might look like I gave up too much, but his value to me is 0 and Salmons value to me is HIGH. This is how you complete the building of a well balanced team. This is the difference between a team of high rank players, and a team with High Sauce.
 
Over the course of the next three posts I’m going to point out four different Specialists that have a low cost, meaning they are either on your waiver wire or you could trade for them easily, and will help build the areas of your Sauce that need help. If one of these guys is a good match for you, feel free to either 1> Add them and drop someone else, 2> work a 1-1 trade to get them, 3> work a 2-1 trade to free up a roster spot and then add them, or even 4> work a 2-2 trade where they get thrown into the deal as an extra. An example of the last would be you dealing Steve Nash and a bench player for Chris Paul and a Specialist that is ranked LOWER than the bench player you gave up.
 
Stay tuned Ballaz, these posts will be released consecutively, and the players in them could be the difference between knowing your Sauce, and being Super Saucy!

32 comments:

  1. So, one of my friends tells me I'm making a big mistake by trading Pierce for Arenas saying he's washed up, his TO and FT% will kill me. I'm telling him that he will "mean revert" to his career numbers and that paul pierce will also settle down towards his career numbers...

    He says Pierce shoots more 3's than Arenas and a better FG%.

    Should I ignore him and know I'm making a good move? The trade is pending currently, awaiting veto votes or not..

    (i hope i used "mean revert" the right way)

    ReplyDelete
  2. Sennator, if it weren't for people like your friend, we'd have no one to take advantage of. Don't ignore him, pump up his ego. He'll be your future trade target. Oh and by the way, Pierce is shooting 40% in December and 35% over his last three games. We are already right.

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  3. this is my original team after the draft:
    PG: deron williams
    SG: terry
    G: rondo
    SF: gwall
    PF: josh smith
    F: scola
    C: nene
    Util: felton
    Util: curry
    Util: courtney lee
    BN: chandler
    BN: thornton
    BN: pietrus
    BN: udrih
    BN: kristic

    after about like 6-9 trades this is my new squad:
    PG: nash
    SG: eric gordon
    G: rondo
    SF: iggy
    PF: aldridge
    F: josh smith
    C: okafor
    Util: bargnani
    Util: love
    Util: curry
    BN: felton
    BN: dunleavy
    BN: speights
    BN: przybilla
    BN: granger

    pts: 14.65
    treys: 0.93
    reb: 6.87
    ast: 3.56
    stls: 1.19
    blcks: 0.79

    what do u think? shud i go after any guys to improve or is my team set? u think i shud trade granger? if so, who can i get? id really like an expert's advice so tell me whatever u can! thanks bro!!

    ReplyDelete
  4. yo thief,

    hope you're doing alright.

    i asked for some help last week and i forgot to write down the information that you helped me with. so i need help once again.

    i'm currently 2nd place in a 10 team H2H with 15 cats.

    MY TEAM:
    PG Jason Kidd
    SG Brandon Roy
    G Jason Terry
    SF Hedo Turkoglu
    PF Nene
    F Charlie Villanueva
    C Brook Lopez
    C Chris Kaman
    Util Russell Westbrook
    Util Brandon Jennings
    BN Danny Granger (INJ)
    BN Michael Beasley
    BN Corey Maggette

    SAUCY NUMBERS:
    PTS: 16.54
    REB: 5.82
    AST: 4.13
    ST: 1.02
    BLK: .73
    3PM: 1.1

    I was number 1 last week, but i got destroyed by the new number 1. i remember you telling me to get okafor, but is he really reliable? i do see i am lacking in rebounds and blocks...but is okafor who i should get? is there anyone else i could try and shoot for? after reading your cp3 blog about how great he is...i just wanted to try and chase him...haha...help would be much appreciated.

    ReplyDelete
  5. hey, thief.... it's me again...

    i've read your blog about buy low and sell high things...
    how do you rate this proposal?
    I give evans, lou williams and przybilla
    I get arenas and camby
    smart or bad move? is it fair enough?

    my team looks like this
    12teams H2H
    Gs: Nash, Westbrook, Evans, Lou Will, Iverson, SJax
    F/Cs: J.Smith, Gallinari, Love, Dunleavy, Thomas, Przybilla, Duncan

    secret sauce:
    pts: 15.41
    rebs:6.04
    asts: 3.93
    treys: 0.9
    stl: 0.93
    blk: 0.84

    ReplyDelete
  6. hey also, in addition to my team question, what can i get for granger?? what do u think ppl are willing to give for him?

    ReplyDelete
  7. Lucky, try granger n curry for Duncan. Then you'd be pimpin. You could do Garnett too.

    Phil, You need boards n blocks too. Same thing, try granger n magette for Duncan or Garnett

    Tia, that'd be a sick deal for you Ink it if you can!

    ReplyDelete
  8. hey thief.

    i jus completed my lbj for carmelo and david lee trade. THANKS! so i was wondering if ray allen for okafor would be a lil low sell for ray allen? if so would would i be able to trade ray allen for for rebsand points?

    SAUCE NUMEBERS:
    pts:16.96
    rebs:6.82
    ast:3.57
    3pt:1.72
    stls:1.3
    blks:.9

    ReplyDelete
  9. Yeah that's too low for ole Ray ray. What about Aldridge? Or David West.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Great Post Thief!

    I feel pretty set with my roster but the owner of Caron Butler might be open to trading him for my Luol Deng. Deng has been great but with Salmons now on board should I keep two Bulls?

    Rondo
    Wade
    Roy
    Iggy
    Nowitzki
    Garnett
    Lopez
    Brand
    Salmons
    B.Gordon

    Bench: Deng, Dunleavy, Lou Williams

    ReplyDelete
  11. RW, in my book deng for butler is a no brainer. Especially with the trade rumors surrounding both teams. INK IT!

    ReplyDelete
  12. hey thief,

    sorry to bother you again. but i have chalmers and CDR. they are my two bench players and was wondering what you thought i should do with them? can i get a 2-1 offer for someone?if so who?

    SAUCE NUMEBERS:
    pts:16.96
    rebs:6.82
    ast:3.57
    3pt:1.72
    stls:1.3
    blks:.9

    ReplyDelete
  13. HUGE DEAL RIGHT HERE. its for a different team.

    i get: arenas, duncan, ariza, josh smith

    i give: joe johnson, iggy, lopez, scola

    who wins?

    ReplyDelete
  14. Lucky, ink it! You are lucky!

    Carlo, they have zero value. Sorry bub.

    ReplyDelete
  15. 8 team league h2h

    PG) DEVIN HARRIS
    SG) KOBE BRYANT
    G) PAUL PIERCE
    SF) CARMELO ANTHONY
    PF) TIM DNCAN
    F) JOSH SMITH
    C) DWIGHT HOWARD
    C) ERICK DAMPIER
    UTIL) JOEL PRZYBILLA
    UTIL) CHANNING FRYE
    BN) JOSH HOWARD
    BN) COURTNEY LEE
    BN) CHAUCEY BILLUPS (INJ)
    BN) KEVIN MARTIN (INJ)
    BN) LOUIS WILLIAMS (INJ)

    MY SAUCE IS

    PTS: 16.6
    3PTM: 0.8
    REB: 6.4
    AST: 2.9
    STL: 1.9
    BLK: 1.1

    there is one manager in my league who has
    deron williams, chris paul, steve nash, and gilbert arenas. Here is his team

    PG) DERON WILLIAMS
    SG) RON ARTEST
    G) CHRIS PAUL
    SF) ANDREI KIRILENKO
    PF) ELTON BRAND
    F) MIKE DUNLEAVY
    C) KEVIN LOVE
    C) AL HARRINGTON
    UTIL) GILBERT ARENAS
    UTIL) ROY HIBBERT
    BN) STEVE NASH
    BN) BORIS DIAW
    BN) MICHAEL BEASLEY
    BN) MANU GINOBLI
    BN) BLAKE GRIFFIN (INJ)

    Here is his sauce

    PTS: 15.4
    3PTM: 1.1
    REB: 5.3
    AST: 4.3
    STL: 1.0
    BLK: .6


    based on my sauce i figure i need more assists and threes.

    should i give up carmelo+pierce=deron+arenas, or is that too much

    cause i figure if i can just get a point guard who gets assists and threes

    ReplyDelete
  16. also, if i could should i trade my paul pierce for joe johnson

    ReplyDelete
  17. Hey thief,

    I've been reading your blog for the past few weeks now and have found it to be a great source of fantasy knowledge and i agree with a lot of the points that you make.

    I followed some of your advice recently and traded Ellis for Amare when Ellis was selling high, I'm hoping it work out - I think it will.

    My question today is about Carmelo, I was somewhat surprised to see that he was voted the best sell high player. I can see him keeping this up and making a push for MVP, he's looking in great shape.

    Here's my team, we're in a 10 team H2H league with some odd cats (FGM, FG%, FT%, 3pm, pts, oreb, rebs, ast, st, blk, to):

    Paul
    Dunleavy
    Westbrook
    Anthony
    West
    Nene
    Scola
    Green
    Millsap (just dropped Morrow, need rebs this week)
    Terry (dropped CDR when someone dropped terry)
    Amare

    Pts: 17.1
    Rebs:5.87
    Ast: 3.14
    3pt: .7
    Stl: 1.06
    Blk: .57

    (Not quite sure how to adjust it to my 10-team league)

    I was targetting fgm, fg%, ft%, ast, st in my draft but my team has changed since to try and get a little more balanced and challenge in orebs for example. I missed your post about trading nene high, do you think i should do that? I might try a 2-1 trade because we have a pretty small league with decent roster players and lots of injured players, like nelson, kev martin, etc.

    Any advice would be awesome. Thanks and keep up the great posts.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Aaron I like both those deals for you. Hook it up playa.

    Dave, don't break the cardinal rule and fall in love with Melo. He scores a lot of points, but he's not a top fantasy player. It's nice that you got him, but I'd sell him for say Deron Williams in a heartbeat. Your team is short on boards n blocks so don't go tossing away nene. Maybe work a melo an scola or dunleavy for Dirk. Hook it up!!

    ReplyDelete
  19. Whats up Thief,

    Speaking of specialists.. I am offering Tony Parker (16.4pts, 5.9 asts, 2.8 boards, 0.6 stls), and the Vanilla Gorilla boards and blks specialist(4.1pts, 7.8 boards, and 1.4blks) for Rondo(12.0pts, 4.1 rebs, 9.5 asts, and 2.5 steals.)

    Now is this some excellent thievin or is this an even steven deal? In addition, how likely would this trade be "perceived" as a solid deal for the manager to take me up on this deal.

    My Sauce stats are:
    15.62 pts
    2.72 asts
    5.98 Rebs
    1.08 3pts
    .88 Steals
    .72 Blks

    10-man H2H league and my PG's are Bibby, Parker, and Nelson (inj). My PF/C are Dirk, Frye, Aldridge, Thompson,Lopez, and Pryzbilla.

    Good lookin out on your help!

    ReplyDelete
  20. Hello Thief,

    I tried to trade for Mike Bibby like you suggested but he declined and counter offered with Anthony Morrow and Mike Bibby for Elton Brand. I lose in this trade right?

    ReplyDelete
  21. Ha! I love it equawn, straight thievin em. Don't worry bout the league, it's not obvious enuff. They'll be cool. INK IT BROSAM!!

    ReplyDelete
  22. thief,

    im really sorry to keep bothering you dude. buht i got jus got an offer of lebron james and chalmers for cp3? should i take it?

    SAUCE NUMEBERS:
    pts:16.96
    rebs:6.82
    ast:3.57
    3pt:1.72
    stls:1.3
    blks:.9

    ReplyDelete
  23. Mark, yup not a good deal. Send him back the same offer you orig sent, tell him this is all you'll do n if he doesn't want it, he doesn't need to counter, you'll go for duhon.

    Carlo, this is CP3 for LBJ, chalmers is garbage. It does u no good to make that trade. Tell him u like lbj, but cp3 is untouchable, then ask if something else would do for lbj.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Thief, Thanks for all your help and quick responses over the past few days.

    My arenas for Pierce trade is in the works is pending but 2 of my friends told me they voted against it already.

    I have another trade in the works if it doesn't go through.

    Pierce + Parker for Joe Johnson + Jeff Green

    The owner of that team doesn't want to see JJ go but I'm telling him the awesome stats of Pierce and parker to coax him into doing the trade.

    Also, i've been talking to a lot of my buddies encouraging them to look at a players stats rather than just their name.

    I've been trying to get Okafor but the owner of that team keeps lowballing me. Offering me SJax + Okafor for Kidd + Aldridge. I said HELL NO!

    My question is, I'm wanting t pick up Biedrins off the WW. I know you said you'd like to see me deal a 2 for 1 and pick him up for free but it seems like with my friends, a 2 for 1 deal is near impossible. What do you suggest?

    ReplyDelete
  25. ReadTETras the 2-1 post, where I describe a 2-2 with you knowing you'll drop one for Biedrins. I know this kid has a Corey Brewer on his team!

    ReplyDelete
  26. Hey Thief,
    Could you tell me which of these if any are sell highs? I have M.Ellis, A.Iverson, R.Lewis, A.Horford, C.Bosh, C.Landry, W.Chandler, G.Hill, S.Marion, R.Gomes, Q.Richardson, B.Wallace, and K.Lowry. If there are any what could I expect to get for them?

    ReplyDelete
  27. Dood, read the posts. The links on the right hand side of the site have player names to find relevant posts.

    ReplyDelete
  28. well, his team consists of
    Bibby, iggy, Rondo, Melo, K.Love, Nene, Okafor, Scola, Josh Smith, KG, S.Jax, DWade, and Jameer.

    I guess the worst would be Bibby or Scola? but those guys are rosterable at worst I'd think. I'd say Jameer since he's just coming off injury but he just picked him up off the WW.

    Should I forget about going for Okafor? Maybe drop Perk for Biedrins?

    ReplyDelete
  29. None of the players listed on the right are on my team. Maybe I'm looking in the wrong place. I'll keep checking. Thanks anyways.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Y4Riv, EXACTLY, none of those players are sell highs yet. I mean, the jury is out on Monta, but I'm not ready to sound the alarm just yet.

    Senn, tough call brosam. But at the end of the day, while Perk shouldn't be on a WW, Biedrins is better. Sucks when you can't pull off a quick enough deal

    ReplyDelete
  31. no i have lebron. and he wants my lebron and is offering me cp3

    ReplyDelete