First off, let me start by saying thanks to all my readers out there. It hasn’t even been a full week yet and I’ve already gotten a tremendous positive response to the work I’m sharing. I can’t tell you enough how much I enjoy doing this. I’ve been involved in fantasy sports for such a long time, way back to when league members had to get their stats and scores from the local newspaper and people checked each others work. Obviously the advent of the internet created a huge surge in the ability to play, track and enjoy. I’m not ashamed of my love for the game. Instead I tell people that playing fantasy sports is my hobby, and everyone should have a hobby and be proud of it. Some people fish, some people bowl, and some people sew. For my dad his hobby was going to the racetrack and betting on horses, for me its fantasy sports.
And there is nothing in the world that even comes close to the feeling you get from winning…..especially when you’re beating a bunch of your buddies. On to the post!
We’re taking a bit of a different turn today to talk about the psychological part of playing in a fantasy sports league. For me, this is what separates the top dogs from the bottom dwellers. Everyone has access to stats, and every serious player does their homework, but not everyone is smart about how they play against their opponents. One thing that I believe distinguishes me from many of the columns you read on fantasy sports is that I’m not a basketball expert, or a baseball expert, or a football expert, but I am a fantasy expert. I’m not just going to tell you so and so is good, or this team is hot, or this guy is injured. Instead I’m going to tell you how I win because that’s what’s most important.
For starters, let’s talk about trade relations. In order to be successful at trading you have to, first and foremost, establish and maintain solid trade relations with your opponents. Don’t be that guy who makes a move, then jumps on the message board and boasts ‘HAHA I just Trade Raped you fool!’ All that does is ensure at least one member (and probably more) of the league will never deal with you again. Take the opposite approach. I like to send warm fuzzy’s to my trade counterparts prior to the deal. Make comments like, ‘Look, I know I’m giving up a lot here, but I really need a 3 point shooter so I am OK making this deal’. Or, ‘Hey, you seem to make deals that work out well for both teams involved, so I’d like to make a move with you’. Keep it amiable; stroke their ego, idiots love their ego stroked. After a trade is done, I like to jump right on the message board before anyone else and send Kudos to the counterparty. Let everyone know this was a solid deal ‘Hey Bob, nice deal. It was good working things out with you. I hated to part with Paul Pierce as he is a beast, but I needed a PG so thanks for that’. Down the road, people will forget the deals, forget where they got certain players, but always remember that you’re a good guy to trade with. Being that ‘good guy’ means not only will they be more willing to deal with you, but they’ll be willing to send YOU offers. The best trades I have ever made are ALWAYS the one’s people have sent me. They watch a guy have a bad game, they get emotional, probably had a few beers or something, and they go right to me with a stupid offer that I jump on. End of story.
Next, let’s talk about what you are offering. At the end of the day, you do not know how anyone else values their players. I love Brandon Roy, but the guy in my league might think he is just OK. Never be afraid to make an offer for any player whatsoever, worst thing that happens is a rejection with a note telling you how much the manager loves his player. With that said, DON’T MAKE EMBARASSING OFFERS. This is a sure fire way to make people hate you, they will stop looking at your offers altogether and you’ll become ‘the guy who makes bad offers’. Want an example? I just got offered Eric Gordon and John Salmons (two guys I think are a solid buy low) for CP3. That’s stupid. All that offer did was make me say to myself, ‘well, no need to try and deal with him’. If the same kid sent me Deron Williams and Eric Gordon, sure that might not be enough for me to make the deal, but it is reasonable. That’s the key, be reasonable. I like to send offers to people that tip in my advantage, but ever so slightly, almost unnoticeably. Be sly.
Finally, know your opponents. Use email, use offers, use the message board, use conversation and follow what they do in other trades to determine who you are playing against. Think of this as like playing poker. You have a HUGE advantage knowing the strategies and reactions of your opponents. For me, in my league, we got all kinds of players. There’s the guy who is willing to make a lopsided deal, so long as he is giving up a category he is strong in and getting a player back that he is weak in. Bam, he’s in my back pocket, and earlier in the year I dealt him Mike Miller (when he was doing well, for three pointers) and got Gerald Wallace (when he was slumping and his FG% was abysmal). I knew the manager, targeted him with what he needed, made the bold offer, and executed. Then there’s the guy who focuses too much on recent production, not enough on the players career. Bam, he’s in my back pocket. Dealt him Jason Thompson for Caron Butler. Then there’s the guy who is trade happy, he’s always just looking to make a deal, so long as he perceives it to be somewhat fair, and has no concern over what’s good for his team. BAM, got him in my pocket. Dealt him Channing Frye for Stephen Jackson. Then there’s the guy who is all about name value. No matter what the deal is, if he’s heard of the player before and someone said the guy is a superstar, he’ll love the deal. BAM, he’s in my back pocket and I dealt him Gilbert Arenas for David West and Allen Iverson. Finally there’s the guy who won’t trade until mid-season, and then will start making terrible deals because he panics about where he is. BAM, he’s in my back pocket. I’ll be the only one sending him offers in January (when everyone else just figures he doesn’t trade) and snagging some gold players on the cheap.
Get to know these guys and their styles. By meshing your offers and communication with their styles, not only will you have more successful trades but you’ll also find them willing to continue trading with you. Even the guy who dealt me Gerald Wallace, he doesn’t view it as me snaking him, he just thinks he made a mistake, and he’s happy to make another move with me in the future.
Good luck tonight all. Friday nights are big in basketball, and I’m sure I’ll have some nice juicy Buy Low, Sell High players coming out soon. Now get out there and DOMINATE.
Friday, December 11, 2009
The Psychological Part of Fantasy Sports
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Squad:
ReplyDeletePG Nash
SG Wade
SF Roy
PF Al Jefferson
C Okafor
UTL Rashard Lewis
UTL Jason Terry
UTL Luol Deng
Bench: Ben Wallace
Channing Frye
Jason Thompson
Michael Redd
Salmons just got dropped to waivers but my team is pretty solid (other than Redd who i just picked up as a FA) and I can't flat drop one of these guys. what you think?
sauce:
pts: 17.825
Reb: 5.937
Asst: 4.025
st: 1.05
blk: .77
3: 1.06
that's my comment above, forgot to write I'm in a 10 team H2H where everyone sets their lineup each night.
ReplyDeleteGood post! Know your enemy!
ReplyDeleteWould you consider Caron Butler as a BUY LOW or will his numbers stay low throughout the season?
Love the post and really enjoying this blog still.
ReplyDeleteDW he made a post about Butler earlier - it's titled "Jason Thompson for Caron Butler" check it out, it was informative.
Still waiting for the CP3 deal that I proposed.
I'm a little worried that I'm the one who makes the embarrassingly low offers. This is my first season playing and so I lowballed a lot in the beginning. And so now after I made a move for Harris and Aldridge, I think that they dont take me seriously.
Anony, you're in the famous 2-1 scenario. That means you can pair up one starter and one bench player for one better starter. Then you grab a WW guy and it's like you made a 2-2. So you could try Frye and Nash for CP3. If it goes thru, then you grab salmons and it's like you dealt for both salmons AND CP3 and you're better off. Do the same with JT.
ReplyDeleteDW, like Dave says, check the post. Do I think Caron will be a superstar this year? Not sure. Do I think he'll be a hell of a lot better than Jason Thompson? YUP, don't you?
Dave, have no fear, just work to re-establish the relations. Rookies/Newbies in a league have a HUGE advantage, everyone thinks they don't know anything. This leads to them being more willing to deal with you. Just be smart about offers going forward. The Thief is here to help with that!