Buy Low, Sell High, Do NOT Buy Low, Do NOT Sell High!

Today's post will involve four different players. As yu might've figurd out I'll go over the usual buy low, the usual sell high, and also two players who should not be bought low or sold high. Let's kick things off with today's obviously overvalued player.

Sell High: Luol Deng - F - Chicago Bulls
Luol has talent, no doubt about it. He creates some mismatches with the defense that open up opportunities to score. But both his points and boards are inflated this year. Let's take a look.

Luol Deng...PTS...REB...AST...3's...BLK...STL...TO...FG%...FT%
2009..........17.7..8.3...1.7..0.4....0.9...1.2...1.7..45.3..82.4
career........15.5..6.4...2.2..0.2....0.6...1.0...1.7..47.4..77.1

OK like we said, points and boardsare where all the unexpected value is coming from, with a little juice on the FT% and a knock down on the dimes. So what gives, is Luol in a breakout year? No, not at all, instead he's enjoyed playing the 3 while Tyrus Thomas has been out, Brad Miller has looked old, Taj Gibson has looked yound, and Joakim Noah is attracting attention underneath. This has freed Deng up to grab those extra boards and also to stretch the defense. But, make no mistake, it will not last and these numbers are due to MEAN REVERT. The catalyst being the imminent reutrn of Thomas and even more troubling is the trade rumors where the bulls are looking to add an Al Harrington type of player. Al on this team would be great for just about eveyone except for Deng. Al will take points from him as well as rebounds. Make your move now before the deal gains steam and managers take notice. It's a good opportunity to deal Deng and pick up a known stud like....

Buy Low: Stephen Jackson - G - Charlotte Bobcats
Jackson has had a tumultuos year, what with all the drama in Golden State and the subsequent move to Charlotte. His numbers are down from career averages but that won't last. First let's look at the numbers.

Stephen Jackson...PTS...REB...AST...3's...BLK...STL...TO...FG%...FT%
2009...........17.9..4.8...3.4...1.2...0.6...1.4...2.8..40....65.4
Career.........15.5..3.9...3.2...1.5...0.4...1.3...2.5..41.8..79.6

Jackson current numbers are in line across the board save for a bump up in PPG which is in line with the numbers he's put up over the last five season, same for his rebounds. His current value is down mainly due to the low FT%, and that's money in the bag for us. FT% is one of those things we KNOW will come with time. Stephen is just too good a shooter to remain mired in a slump from the line, and you know Larry Brown will have him working on that at practice. Let's ask the 3 questions because one of them has an impact here.
1> Was there an injury? NO
2> Is he getting too old? At 31, Jackson has a couple of years left in him
3> Is he on a new team? YES but in this case, that's a good thing!
That's right, I love himbeing in Charlotte now. In GS, not only did he and Nellie absolutely hate each other, but they had him starting at PF. Jackson can do a lot, but PF is not his position. Move him to Charlotte andyou have a perfect recipe for a nice bounce back to the strong seasons you saw in '07 and '08. He's playing the 2 for Charlotts, he's got a solid distributor in Felton, a great coach in Larry Brown and a great mentor in Michael Jordan to keep his personality in check. Couple that with the awesomeness of Gerald Wallace drawing the defenses attention and you have a recipe for success. For me, I'd be dealing a Luol Deng and snagging SJ while he's on he cheap. One last thought, SJ drops treys, Luol doesn't and incase you haven't noticed, it's a lot easier to score boards this year than it is to find a reliable three point shooter.

I want to be clear though, sometimes there are guys you do not want to sell high, and others yo don't want to buy low. Let me give two quick examples to show you how my thinking goes.

Do NOT Sell High: Carlos Boozer - F - Utah Jazz
Booze is such an excellent athlete, made all the better playing with Deron Williams. Boozer carries the injury tag, based on two season where he missed half the games and that has hurt his draft value. But every time the guy plays he dominates and that's why we look at AVERAGE stats when analyzing a player.

Carlos Boozer...PTS...REB...AST...3's...BLK...STL...TO...FT%...FG%
2009..............20.9..11....3.6...0.....0.6...1.2...2.7..80.7..56.6
Career............17....10....2.4...0.....0.5...1.0...2.2..72.9..53.8

Note that Boozer scored career highs in points in 06 and 07, while also posting the same level of rebounds. Last year, even though he was injured, he was on much the same pace but his averages were skewed due to some games of less minutes nursing the injury. None of these injuries were game changers, Boozer is top 20 talent and definitely NOT a player to sell high.

Do NOT Buy Low: Shawn Marion - F - Dallas Mavericks
I'm not even going to post his numbers, we all know what they are. If you drafted Marion, shame on you. You should've seen this coming from a mile away. What was once the most dominant force in fantasy basketball is merely a shell of his former self. I'll go right to the three questions, where you'll get some clarity why we ask them.

1> Is he on a different team? YES, in fact the fourth one in 3 years. Marion fit well with the Suns upscale system, and make no mistake that system was about coaching, not Steve Nash. Thus pairing Marion with Jason Kidd changes nothing.
2> Was there a significan injury? YES, this question is only answered by watching the players (God I Love NBATV), and it is clear Shawn just doesn't have the same ups that he used to.
3> Is the player getting old? YES, while he's basically the same age as Stephen Jackson, it's really about the injury. Younger players bounce back, older ones retire.

My advice, stay away from Marion at all costs. It just isn't worth the risk.


Well that's it for today's analysis. Keep your eye on those box scores tonight. Most notably the Charlotte game to see if SJ can put up back to back solid games (you might wanna ink that trade deal before tipoff), the Denver game to see if Melo gets shut down by the SA defense, and the Sacramento game and JT.

Good Luck Tonight!