Monday, December 14, 2009

The 2-1 Trade, A Fantasy Manager's Best Tactic to Win.

The 2-1 trading style, or alternatively the 3-2, can substantially increase the quality of your fantasy rotation. When performed correctly, it’s an almost foolproof way to add players to your team that you should never have a chance at getting given the price you are paying. The basics of the strategy involve offering an opponent two players from your squad for one player on his squad (or 3 for 2), where the player on his squad is the best player involved in the deal. The players you offer should generally be one starter and one bench player, where the bench player is considered ‘rosterable’ (i.e. he’s not someone you’d be dropping anytime soon). Generally the starter on your squad and the star player you are trading for, play the same position. From your standpoint you are dealing in order to ‘upgrade’ a specific position. From the counterparty’s standpoint, they are downgrading but are getting something worthwhile to do so:

Here’s an example:


You give to your opponent in a trade: David Lee (ranked about 30th) and Courtney Lee (ranked about 100 but top 5 overall in steals per game)
You get from your opponent: Chris Bosh (ranked about 10th)

This type of trade is ideal for your opponent should they be in the position where they are in need of steals (and particularly if you are not). In this case, what they give up doesn’t hurt so much because of the benefit they get back. Since Courtney Lee was sitting on your bench (in roto) or adding to a category you aren’t in need of (in all formats), you’ve essentially traded David Lee for Chris Bosh, a huge upgrade indeed.

There is one huge side effect to making a deal like this that actually further increases the benefit to you, the freed up roster spot. Let’s say you’ve made the trade above and currently John Salmons is sitting on your FA wire. By picking him up once the trade goes through, you’ve effectively changed this from a 2-1 trade to a 2-2 trade, with Salmons being the second player you received. I don’t know many ballas that wouldn’t be geeked at landing Salmons and Bosh for Lee and Lee. Particularly if the swap of steals for treys (between Salmons and C. Lee) boosts your squad.

At the outset of every season I scout the FA wire and make a list of guys sitting out there that should be on somebody’s roster. I then scout my opponents to see who is holding a player that doesn’t deserve to be on a roster whatsoever. This is important because the person you trade with will have to drop a player to make the trade with you. If they don’t have a droppable guy, they won’t do the deal. In some cases, you might have to literally hold the opponents hand through the deal by offering a 2-2 trade where the second player he deals is one that should be on the FA wire. For instance:

You give: David Lee and Courtney Lee
You get: Chris Bosh and Andres Nocioni (ranked YUCK!)

Once the trade goes through, you’re simply dumping Noc for Salmons, doing the dirty work for your trade partner. This is a very effective way to upgrade players in your lineup. This is how I stack my team with Tier Three’s and Tier Two’s at the season’s outset. No matter how competitive the league, and believe me mine is competitive, there are ALWAYS guys on the FA wire that shouldn’t be there, and guys on teams that shouldn’t be there, for at least the first two months.

That owner was holding Nocioni for a reason, usually because he read some –run of the mill beat writer- from yahoo or espn or wherever write up a glorious praise for one night’s performance. Now he’s got to fight with having Nocioni on his bench, or dropping him, which is harder than you think because he is fighting his own ego. You are merely offering to give him an ‘out’ on Mr. Nocioni.

I know what your next question will be: how do I know if that guy on the FA wire is rosterable? Simple, look at the worst player on your team and compare his averages with the best available FA wire players averages. Are they close? Does the FA player start for their team? Do they get 30+ minutes a night? Did they just replace an injured guy for the season? All questions to be asked, and if you’re really in doubt, The Thief is always here to help.

Now we’re already over a month into the season, and those FA wires are getting bare. So get out there and propose some deals before the last rosterable option gets scooped up. Remember, targeting what other teams need will make the trade go smoother and will generate positive buzz about you in your league!

36 comments:

  1. Hey Thief

    anyway to improve my team

    16 team head to head category league

    Cats are Field Goals Made Free Throws Made Three Pointers Made Offensive Rebounds Defensive Rebounds Assists Steals Blocks Turonvers Double Doubles Triple Doubles Quadrouple Doubles and points

    my sauce numbers
    FGM 7.29
    FTM 3.84
    3PM 0.41
    OREB 1.57
    DREB 5.43
    AST 4.71
    STL 1.11
    BLK 0.53
    TO 2.74
    DD .34
    TD
    QD
    PTS 18.86

    my team
    PG Derrick Rose
    SG Tyerek Evans (PG SG)
    SF LeBron James
    PF Carlos Boozer
    C Al Jefferson (PF C)
    UTIL Luis Scola (PF C)
    UTIL Russell Westbrook
    BENCH
    JR Smith
    Corey Brewer (SG SF)
    Danilo Gallinari (SF PF)
    Jason Thompson
    IR Fracisco Garcia (SG SF)

    ReplyDelete
  2. Skeet, WOW that's an intense league! Talk about overdoing it. Yeah I'd suggest using both gallinari and Thompson with Evans and scola in some 2-1 deals.

    Dave, ha! It's true ain't it! Why does anyone own this guy?!?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Yo, just pulled off another trade

    Got : Stephen Jackson for: Bargnani

    and late last week I got Pau for : Mo will and Lamar

    how about it, am I making the right moves?

    I'd give the new secret sauce but I have to wait for the pending trades to really go through before I can update in that regard. Thanks pimpin

    ReplyDelete
  4. hello mr. thief,

    i've recently discovered your blog and i have to say, it is quite insightful.

    i've been itching to make a trade. I just feel my team isn't good enough to win the whole thing. even though i currently 2nd in my 10 team H2H, i just don't know if my team has what it takes.

    Should i do anything to my team to make it better?

    Here's my team:
    Jason Kidd
    Russell Westbrook
    Brandon Jennings
    Brandon Roy
    Jason Terry
    Hedo Turkoglu
    Danny Granger
    Corey Maggette
    Charlie Villanueva
    Michael Beasley
    Nene
    Brook Lopez
    Chris Kaman

    Some FA's in my league:
    Jameer Nelson
    Leandro Barbosa
    Tyrus Thomas
    Louis Williams
    Courtney Lee
    T.J. Ford
    Nate Robinson
    Mario Chalmers
    Brad Miller
    Joel Pryzbilla
    Ronnie Brewer
    Tayshaun Prince
    Erick Dampier

    ReplyDelete
  5. Broski, love em both! With Kobe hurting, Pau will be HUGE. And if it isn't obvious, I'm a big fan of SJax.

    Phil! Welcome! Glad to help. Please refer to the post Secret Sauce, once you run the numbers suggested there we'll be able to get an accurate picture of your teams strengths and weaknesses. Then report back!

    ReplyDelete
  6. oh man sorry about not posting the saucy numbers.
    i just calculated them and i believe i did it right. here it is.

    PTS - 17.38
    REB - 5.81
    AST - 4.27
    STL - 1.12
    BLK - .77
    3PM - 1.29

    my 10 team h2h has 15 categories.
    FGA FTA 3PA PTS STL
    FGM FTM 3PM REB BLK
    FG% FT% 3P% AST TOs

    do i need to give numbers for all the cats?

    ReplyDelete
  7. oh yeah my starting roster would be:
    Jason Kidd (PG)
    Brandon Roy (SG)
    Jason Terry (G)
    Hedo Turkoglu (SF)
    Danny Granger (PF)
    Nene (F)
    Chris Kaman (C)
    Brook Lopez (C)
    Russell Westbrook (UTIL)
    Brandon Jennings (UTIL)
    -----------------------------
    Charlie Villanueva (BENCH)
    Michael Beasley (BENCH)
    Corey Magette (BENCH)

    ReplyDelete
  8. Good stuff phil, now we can see you're heavy in treys and light in blocks. I think Okafor could be a good addition. Try moving Terry and a bench player for Okafor and a mid ranked (40-70) guard. Good luck!

    ReplyDelete
  9. Greetings Mr. Thief,

    Just traded K. Perkins and R. Hamilton (which I picked up from FA a week ago) for E. Okafor. Pretty sweet huh? Your blog is awesome. Anyway, need your advice to pull off the ultime in the act of thievin, get LBJ!!!

    10 team, H2H, 8 cat. Here you'll find my starter's sauce #:

    PTS: 16.56
    AST: 3.99
    REB: 6.92
    3'S: .78 (below)
    Steal 1.16
    Block .87

    My roster:

    CP3
    Billups
    A. Iggudala
    P. Gasol
    Nene
    Okafor
    Bogut
    Gordon
    L. Aldrige

    Bench:

    C. Douglas-Roberts
    Okur
    Josh Howard

    What 2 for 1 may land me Lebron? Love your blog my man.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Greedy! You have CP3 and want LBJ too! In my experience peeps tend to not let you have players 1 and 2. Also, great Okafor trade! I REALLY like your team as is BUT if you must, try Iggy and Nene. Man it'd be sick if you land LBJ too. Good luck playa!

    ReplyDelete
  11. Hey Thief,

    10 Man, Roto, 9 Categories.

    Currently: 2nd Place

    FG% - 4th.
    FT& - 3rd.
    3PM - 5th.
    PTS - 1st
    REB - 7th
    AST - 3rd.
    STL - 4th.
    BLK - 7th
    TO - 9th.

    I recently traded Lebron for Bosh and Rondo. I dropped Dampier.

    My current team:

    Rondo
    J. Crawford
    B. Davis
    Deng
    Beasley
    Melo
    Bosh
    Scola
    Perkins
    Salmons

    S. Curry
    Blake Griffin
    Jarrett Jack (Should I drop for Przybilla?)

    Do you think I got my money's worth for Lebron?

    ReplyDelete
  12. hey i need some help im sitting 9th in a 10 team h2h league ... id like to think i did an ok drafting consider i was 7 out of 10 but im not able to make an trades to try and better my team... i have run into sum injury probs as well...let me know if i should make moves or stick with it till i get healthy..here is my squad...thanks!

    k-mart (sac. kings)
    d will
    westbrook
    thompson
    dirk
    t. murphy
    bogut
    calderon
    b. lopez
    redd
    jameer
    gallinari
    d. lee

    ReplyDelete
  13. Andy, there is no trade worth LeBron in my opinion, but you did about as good as one can hope for.

    Andy and Anony, please read the post Secret Sauce. In it you'll find my formula for evaluating your team. Once you pump out the numbers, we'll both better know what you need and who you can trade. Then report back!

    ReplyDelete
  14. I agree with this and looking to swing one of this down the line. Gabadoo I am interested in your take on my lineup.

    14 team H2H 11 cat
    pts/reb/Oreb/asts/stls/blks/3s/fg%/ft%/TO/techfouls

    sauce numbers:
    Pts: 13.36
    Rebs: 6.47
    Asts: 3.17
    Stl: 1.17
    Blks: .95
    3s: 1.03

    Lineup:
    Starters:
    CP3
    Kidd
    Salmons
    A Morrow
    Gallo
    Thaddeus Young
    J Thompson
    Birdman
    Brook Lopez
    Ben Wallace
    Andrew Bogut

    My bench has
    Rip
    Josh Howard
    Biedrins

    Sauce numbers don't include my bench so probably better than what the saucy numbers suggest. I wanna get a 2 for 1 done since Kevin Martin is sitting in our FA. I will pick him up by Friday anyway for maybe Morrow if he is still slumping. Thanks in advance. :D

    ReplyDelete
  15. hey thief ... sorry i didnt put my sauce numbers before....here they are

    pts-17.20
    rebs-6.37
    asts-3.74
    stls-1.04
    blks-0.75

    ps. loving ur blog

    ReplyDelete
  16. hey Fantasy Basketball Legend!
    i'm in a little bit of a dilemma with my team. I need to UPGRADE! I am willing to trade anyone on my team, as long as I get the better deal (you know). so lemme get to the chase.
    My Team's Sauce:

    PTS: 14.86
    REB: 5.01
    AST: 3.44
    3s: 1
    STL: .98
    BLK: .4

    not so great huh?

    heres the team:
    Luke Ridnour
    Dwayne Wade
    Ersan Ilyasova
    David West
    David Lee
    Ray Allen
    OJ Mayo
    Mike Bibby
    Wilson Chandler
    Chris Duhon
    BENCH:
    Shaq O'Neal
    Grant Hill
    Leandro Barbosa

    14 Teams, 9 H2h, My teams FT% is 85%, thats why i dont start shaq

    any trade suggestions for players to target? Who should I ship in a 2-1.

    Hey and thanks again, I found out about this on a message board and am really thankful for your services. Cheers!

    ReplyDelete
  17. Dmonray, try moving one of your big boards guys for Stephen Jackson, you could use more points and can afford to lose a little boards. I would try (depending on the gullibility of the other guy) Birdman, Wallace, Bogut, Thompson, in that order (he'll prolly take Thompson).

    Anony, surprised you aren't doing better. I think you have just had bad luck so far. Try moving Jay Thompson for Eric Gordon, you could use a boost in treys. Thanks for the Kudos too, good lookin out!

    Yizzie!! Welcome balla, let's cut to the chase. Your team ain't so bad, but you DEF need a big boards n blocks guy. But we NEED to steal him bigtime. Try Ridnour for Okafor (tell him you'll throw in a bench player if need be). If you can't land Okafor, try the same with Noah. Let me know how it goes. Hang in there, ITS A LONG SEASON!

    ReplyDelete
  18. Hey Thief,

    The Westbrook and Deng for Harris didn't pan out. Is there someone else I can try to package the two for? I'm starting to fall behind in 3PTM from the current leader, still very close in steals, and with the pickup of Kevin Love, I've taken the lead in rebounds though the gap still isn't huge.

    My team again:
    PG: D-Will, Rondo, Mo-Will, Westbrook
    SG: Wade, B-Roy, Iguodala, Kevin Martin
    SF: R-Lewis, Deng
    PF: Boozer, Love
    C: B-Lopez, Bargnani, A-Bynum

    My sauce numbers again: (not including injured Kevin Martin)
    pts: 18.06
    reb: 6.65
    ast: 4.39
    stl: 1.21
    blk: 0.78
    tos: 2.57
    3pt: 0.99

    ReplyDelete
  19. i proposed:
    GIVE:
    RIDNOUR & SHAQ
    GET:
    NOAH & NATE ROBINSON

    thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
  20. DW, we gotta move Deng for value before it goes away! Try moving him for J-Rich to get some treys and blocks.

    Yizzie! Don't be Greedy, let him keep Nate Rob, if you get Noah for those two, YOU BE BALLIN!

    ReplyDelete
  21. Gabadoo,

    Thanks for the quick response. SJax's owner is 3rd bottom and also has Caron Butler and LaMarcus. Any 3-2 deals you think I could swing? Thanks again.

    ReplyDelete
  22. haha gotcha. If this goes throughman , you should be sitting on the panel next to Stuart Scott during NBA Shootaround!

    ReplyDelete
  23. hey thief, great blog, been following for a while but first post. havent been thieving but lets hope that changes, but on to the good stuff

    h2h league, 12 teams, 8 cat

    fg%, ft%, 3ptm, pts, reb, asts, stl, blk, to
    pg. chris paul
    sg. paul pierce
    sf. antawn jamison
    pf. marcus camby
    c. andrew bogut

    bench
    larry hughes
    anthony randolph (being a gsw fan hurts)
    erick dampier
    joel pryzbilla (owned oden)
    andre miller (waiting on that trade)
    derrick rose
    tyler hansbrough (add/drop)
    allen iverson

    sauce.
    pts. 16.86
    assists: 4.14
    boards. 7.4
    treys. 1.04
    steals. 1.34
    blocks. .96

    any suggestions?

    ReplyDelete
  24. sorry, its me again. I'm just really addicted to fantasy sports and the discover of your site.

    I was wondering who can i get in a 2-1. I plan on giving up say Hill and Mayo(doing pretty well recently, sell high?). Thanks

    heres my saucy sauce again.
    PTS: 14.86
    REB: 5.01
    AST: 3.44
    3s: 1
    STL: .98
    BLK: .4

    BIG BALLA!

    ReplyDelete
  25. yo thief,

    i offered this dude j.thompson plus big ben for stephen jackson...he rejected

    i also offered j. thompson for j.salmons, he rejected...what should I do? what am i doing wrong i thought i was being reasonable..

    ReplyDelete
  26. DMonray, BOOYAH BONANZA! Oh man I'm rooting for you to take all three down. Yeah lets go Gallinari, Morrow, Thompson for the 3 Buy Lows. See if he bites or counters. Man if you knock this down I'm givin you Thief of the Week Award!

    Yizzie, try Hill and Mayo for Jason Richardson. J-Rich is like a better version of Mayo! Thanks for the Kudos too!

    GOOSE! Bout time we heard from ya! You know what I'm gonna say playa, I'm gonna tell ya to SELL SELL SELL on Pierce and Camby. Looks like y'all don't play many starters though so might be tough to find a trade partner? If so it's try dealing em both to the same manager. Also if possible I'd like to see Okafor instead of Bogut on your squad. Bogut is too injury prone. Good Luck!

    ReplyDelete
  27. Ramm, you are being reasonable, he sounds scared to trade. Bring out the alternative tools. Use email, IM, phone, get in touch with the sucka and ask him what he's lookin to get. This is gonna take a verbal negotiation!

    ReplyDelete
  28. don't you think dude would be like "wtf" if i email? how you soften that blow?

    ReplyDelete
  29. Not at all, emailing is part of the game, that's why they let you see his addy. Get on that, just be cordial and stroke his ego a bit 'hey man, you drafted really well. Interested in trading at all?'

    ReplyDelete
  30. Thanks Thief!

    Hey, Jason Richardson owner is lacking in 3s so he might keep him, but what do you think about Ginobili? He hit some 3s and grabbed some steals this week w/ good percentages. Is he a BUY LOW candidate?

    The owner trying to trade him also has Antawn Jamison.. Do I have a better chance at Ginobili w/ Westbrook and Deng? Or is Jamison the better player?

    ReplyDelete
  31. Ginobili is a buy VERY low, his injuries scare me. However if you can get Jamison, do so. Antawn is a monster in fantasy.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Morning Thief. Looking at your list of players who shouldn't be on the waiver I got a laugh because all but one are FA's in my league. JJack was picked up just yesterday. I'm trying to move Deng for 3ball help but the guy wants Tyreke Evans for either salmons or Ben Gordon. He would also do Salmons and B.Gordon for Deng and Evans. This manager also has Arenas and I've thought about offereing up Evans and Deng for Gil and then picking up Beidrins. What do you think. Here is my roster:

    PG: Rondo, Evans, T. Parker
    SG: Wade, Broy
    SF: Iggyuodala, Deng, Morrow
    PF: Nowitzki, KG, Brand
    C: B. Lopez, Pryzbilli

    After going over the sauce I have good numbers across the board other than 3pts made. I'm first in my league but If I could bring my 3's and FG% up I would dominate. Any thoughts?

    PS: I posted something similar in the Gil Arenas blog. Please disregard. THanks Thief.

    ReplyDelete
  33. 12 team h2h standard 9 cat. ive done many trades since the draft, so i was wondering how i did.

    PG: nash
    SG: iggy
    G: rondo
    SF: s-jax
    PF: josh smith
    F: scola
    C: okafor
    Util: love
    Util: aldridge
    Util: curry
    BN: felton
    BN: tyson chandler
    BN: dunleavy
    BN: przybilla
    BN: granger

    ReplyDelete
  34. what should i trade to get LBJ, I was thinking Pierce,Artest am i overdoing it or add in Ersan or Duhon or Peja S?

    ReplyDelete
  35. I'm offering Melo and T. Thomas for Kobe, is it a good deal with kobe injueries and all?

    ReplyDelete