Tuesday, December 8, 2009

The Thief's Secret Sauce

OK, as promised I'm going to drop some hardcore analysis on you ballers to take home and dominate with. First, some background. I collected data on 10 different fantasy basketball leagues, going back over the last 5 years. With this data I concocted a formula to pump out what the average per game stat a team needs in order to dominate that category. Now these numbers are based on a 12 team league, so if you're in a league with more or less people, adjust accordingly. To clarify all this, I'm going to give you the average your entire TEAM needs to have for each of the major categories to DOMINATE that category. Before I tell you what to do with this information, let's look at the numbers:

Points: 15.92
Assists: 3.65
Boards: 6.48
Treys: 1.02
Steals: 1.06
Blocks: .77

FG%, FT%, and TO's were WAY too volatile to get an accurate reading on. OK, so what have I just pumped out for you? Simple, go back to your team and start calculating what your Starting Rotation averages in each of these categories. If you're below in a category, consider yourself weak there. If you're above in a category, consider yourself strong there.

Now when you make trades you'll have a benchmark to use to decide what stat categories you should go after. Sure, if I never made an add/drop, and never made a trade, this would be obvious, it would be the categories that I am down in (or keep losing in H2H). But since our rosters are ever changing, we never truly know where we are solid and where we are weak. You could be way down in 3 pointers, but if you just added a 2 new three point shooters, you might've overdone it.

I know, I know, The Thief just hooked you up something sick. It's an unfair advantage that you happened on my blog and all your boys didn't. Whatever, sucks to be them.

Now stay focused and use this info the right way. Check out your team, see where you're weak and where you're strong. Now when trading, we're STILL going to use our PATENTED Buy Low Sell High strategy, we've just added a new hitch. If you're Sell High player happens to represent a category you're strong in, and a buy low target represents a category you're weak in, well thats GOLD FOR YOU. In other words, say you're current team averages 1.8 Treys, and you hold Gallinari, and you're team averages 5 boards a game, when you're RIPE to deal Gallinari for Aldridge and DOMINATE! You follow me?

Now if you happen to be weak in 3's, AND you're holding Gallinari, then you're simply dealing him for another 3 point shooter that's a Buy Low, like Eric Gordon.

Alright, I won't throw any more on you else this'll be like school or somethin, that is, if school meant DOMINATING your boys in fantasy sports! I know it's a lot to digest, so feel free to drop any questions in the comments section, I'm happy to answer em as usual. Remember, I do this same stuff with stocks everyday, so if I move a bit fast it's because my world moves fast.

Now if you'll excuse me, I'm still trying to get the rotten bastard holding Rose and Stoudemire to Sell Low to me!

41 comments:

  1. Mr. Thief,

    what would be your top 5 to buy low and sell high players in my case.

    I briefly asked last sunday, and you told me to go after rose and oden. Oden has since peaced out and the guy that has rose unfortunately doesn't update.

    My line up is this (h2h 12 teams, deep):

    brooks
    e. gordon
    jennings
    rondo
    granger
    butler
    webster (just picked him up for dampier)
    jason thompson
    elyasova
    beasley
    ty thomas
    ant. randolph
    frye
    bargnani
    lopez
    ben wallace

    (someone just also offered me a trade of joe johnson for my lopez and brooks)

    your thoughs on it all.
    thanks a bunch!

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  2. Mr. Anonymous,

    Whew, dodged a bullet with Oden there! Do me a favor, offer him back Jason Thompson and Brooks for Joe Johnson. See what he does and get back to me. Meanwhile I'll work on some new Buy Low data for you.

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  3. that's exactly what I did, and he countered with brooks + lopez. I'm trying to exploit his weakness as he is almost in last place and he has carmelo, joe johnson, and kobe (all high quality scorers) and his other notables are david lee, jermaine oneal, bogut, and blake griffin. So basically I am trying to buy low on some of his players because his team is doing poorly and i can use extra assists and points with granger out. what kind of package do you think I can work so he could buy into it?

    as always, thanks.

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  4. how about bargnani+thompson for joe and pick up damp

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  5. Alright brosam, slow down a bit. We need to be sure we're making trade that benefit our goal of winning. I need you to go back to your roster, and calculate out your starting rotations average stats so we can compare them to our secret sauce and see what positions/stats to target for you.

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  6. How exactly do you calculate your average stats of your starting rotation?

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  7. yea. are you calculating totals per week and then dividing by the number of players?

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  8. I went over the math and my three ball production came out at .71 for my starting lineup and that's with using Morrow as a utility. Everything else came up looking real nice. I was above the average for Pts, REb, ast, stls and blks.

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  9. You say these numbers will have you "dominating" your league. What do you mean by that. These numbers are average? They should get you first place? Top three?

    I also was wondering how many rostered people this data was pulled from. Because the larger the roster the lower this per game value will get because of the extra lower value players on a roster.

    Thanks,

    Adam

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  10. What happens to the values when it is only a 10 team league? 8 teams?

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  11. Adam, don't worry, I'm on top of it. These were taken from 10 roster spot leagues. If you roster less, your numbers will be higher, relatively higher. We'll still be able to tell, whether u start five guys or twenty, whether your league has five managers or fifteen, what categories your squad is strong in and which are weak. It's all RELATIVE, you feel me?

    Stodds, same thing. Look if you play in a ten team league and your Rebs = 7.08 and your blocks = .65, we know you're weak in blocks but strong in boards. Likwise, if you play in an 8 team league and it's reb=8.25 blocks = .81, same thing. Or if you can start 12 guys and it's a 12 team league, an you have reb=4.95 blocks = .24. So long as we have our Sauce numbers for a benchmark, I can scale up or down easily to analyze your squad.

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  12. Alright, cool. It is a ten-team league, standard 9 cats, and 11 roster spots.

    My team is:

    PG: Deron Williams
    SG:Eric Gordon
    SF: Stephen Jackson
    PF: Troy Murphy
    C: Carlos Boozer
    UTIL: Marcus Camby
    UTIL: Kevin Love
    Bench: Brandon Jennings
    Bench: Michael Beasley
    Bench: Raymond Felton
    Bench: Aaron Brooks

    My secretsauce #'s are

    Points: 15.85
    Assists: 4.18
    Boards: 6.39
    Treys: 1.45
    Steals: 1.25
    Blocks: .54

    Any thoughts? I obviously am strong in 3's and assists and steals. I've been trying to sell high on jennings. Any targets you can think of that would benefit my team?

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  13. Hello and yeah it's all relative I was just curious to see where I was at.

    So right now i'm in first in my league. I'm looking to set up a 2 for 1 deal then pick up blake griffin off the waivers. I'm just in a 12 team h2h league on yahoo with friends. It has 15 categories FGM FTM 3PTM PTS OREB DREB REB AST STL BLK TO PF TECH EJCT FF. Each team rosters 15 players. These are my numbers including bench players in the averages

    FGM - 5.21
    FTM - 2.96
    3PTM - 0.74
    PTS - 14.12
    OREB -1.71
    DREB - 5.04
    REB - 6.74
    AST - 2.91
    STL - 0.99
    BLK - 0.75

    I'm not worrying about to and pf considering how i'm in dead last by a good bit in them.

    My Roster
    PG - J. Kidd
    SG - A Igoudala
    G - Raymond Felton
    G - Wilson Chandler
    SF - Hedo Turkoglu
    PF - Dirk Nowitzki
    C - Marc Gasol
    C - Kevin Love
    F - Mehmet Okur
    F- Luis Scola
    Util - Kendrick Perkins
    Util - Udonis Haslem
    Bench - Al Thornton
    Bench - Hakim Warrick
    Bench - Jameer Nelson

    I was wondering if you had anyone that would be a good idea to target with a 2 for 1 for my team. I was thinking of targeting someone like Dwight Howard or Josh Smith for some blocks. Then dropping warrick for a 3 point shooter from waivers. CP is on a team where the owner doesn't do anything or trade. Same for Kevin Durant, Kevin Garnett, Al Jefferson, Caron Butler, Nash, Jamison and Howard. However I can still try and hope they bother to check it.

    Thanks,

    Adam H

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  14. I figured out how to calculate the avg's but I'm confused with which starting roster your mentioning. The roster changes almost everyday day. sorry if I sound lost, first time fantasy bball player and lovin' it.

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  15. Gerry, if u can start ten guys, use the best ten that fill the roster.

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  16. I'm in a 12 team H2H league.
    My team is:
    Al Jefferson
    Steve Nash
    Kevin Martin( didn't include in SS)
    Gilbert Arenas
    Hedo Turkoglu
    Stephen Jackson
    Boris Diaw
    Stephen Curry
    Beno Udrih
    Ben Wallace
    Kenyon Martin
    Mike Miller (didn't include)

    How can I improve my team? Thanks

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  17. Andrew you may want to add in your secret sauce numbers.

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  18. Sorry forgot to type in SS Numbers

    Points: 14
    Assists: 4.29
    Boards: 5.29
    Threes: .97
    Steals: 1.1
    Blocks: .58

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  19. What's up Andy, try dealing curry for okafor, Then see if u can move Nash for Wade (maybe toss in udrih?). You're low on pts boards n blocks, high in assists. These deals should fix that. If u can't get oka, try for Noah too. If can't get Wade, report back n we'll look for blocks elsewhere

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  20. Don't think i'll be able to get Wade because the guy already has PG like Baron Davis, Aaron Brooks, and Mike Bibby. I might be able to get Okafor but not sure yet.

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  21. K, the next best guy is bargnani. Not for Nash tho. Maybe hedo n udrih?

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  22. How do I adjust the sauce numbers for a 10 team league?

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  23. You don't need to. It's all relative.

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  24. Hey Thief,

    Great site and advice! Ive been following for awhile now but this is the 1st time I've asked your opinion. Maybe that's why I am last in a 12 team league! HELP!

    My team:

    GUARDS:
    Kidd
    Reke
    Monta
    Flynn (bench)
    Bynum (bench)
    Louis Williams (inj)

    FORWARDS:
    Ben Wallace
    Landry
    Frye
    Granger (inj)
    Tayshaun (inj)

    Centers:
    Dalembert
    Yi

    My Sauce:
    Pts: 13.28 (very weak)
    Dimes: 3.54 (slightly weak)
    Boards: 5.42 (weak)
    Stls: 1.13 (slightly strong)
    Blks: .65 (slightly weak)
    Treys: .81 (weak)

    I did not calculate Granger in there since I will be without him for a long time.

    As you can see, I am weak in EVERY category! However, my team doesn't really fit the Sauce formula because 7 of my players have recently been added (Monta, Kidd, Bynum, Yi, Tayshaun, Johnny Flynn, Lou Will). So although you can't really use the Sauce for a team recently put together, can ya still give me advice on how the hell to get outta the basement?!

    Thanks Thief! You rock!!

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  25. HA! Wassssaaaaaaaaap there NotaDJ! Work Granger in a deal bro, I'm thinking Duncan or KG would be perfect. Solidify those boards n blocks and add some points. Your dimes are fine, you're a wee low in treys, but nothing to get worked up over just yet. Ole Lou will help there when he's back.

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  26. I was wondering how I would be able to adjust these numbers based on 10team league as opposed to 12team. I would think these numbers would have to be higher because there's more quality players to choose from since there are 2 less teams.

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  27. Bandoooooooogie, whats up dawg. Everyone keeps askin me this question, so I'll try to explain a bit more. Going from 10 - 12 teams means that basically the worst 20 players from the 12 team league won't be on a team in the 10 team league. That's 2 players per team. It might shift the numbers a little, like say .30ish. Also, remember, we're using these as benchmarks. If you're in a 12 team league and have a .76 in Treys, or if you're in a 10 team league with .76 in Treys, either way, YOU NEED TO ADD TREYS. You dig?

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  28. Hey Thief, I just wanted to post my sauce numbers again as a refresher:

    Points: 16.66
    Rebounds: 5.94
    Assists: 3.47
    Steals: 1.17
    Treys: 0.96
    Blocks: 0.56

    Just so you can get an idea of what I'm up against, I have included the sauce for the teams currently in the top 2 spots in my league

    1st place team:

    Points: 20.10
    Rebounds: 7.15
    Assists: 3.87
    Steals: 1.08
    Treys: 0.91
    Blocks: 0.76

    2nd place team:

    Points: 18.13
    Rebounds: 6.03
    Assists: 3.50
    Steals: 1.15
    Treys: 0.95
    Blocks: 0.53

    As you can see, those are some hefty numbers.
    Do you think I can end up competing with these guys?

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  29. Oh I forgot to list my team again:

    Antawn Jamison
    Kevin Martin
    Baron Davis
    Chris Paul
    Eric Gordon
    Allen Iverson
    Kevin Love
    David West
    Chauncey Billups
    Andrew Bynum
    Caron Butler
    Anthony Randolph
    Charlie Villanueva

    What changes do I have to make to compete? The guy who was going to offer me Murphy for Butler backed out and the guy who I offered Davis for KG to, is dragging his feet. Should I still try to pursue this deal?

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  30. Bando, I imagine the league is top heavy. Those teams look stacked, but no worries, you're up there with them. I love the BD for KG move, it'd def help a lot. We can absolutely work with this, and don't forget you get Kev Mart back in January. I imagine teams 1 an 2 havent had much injury issues.

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  31. Here's my team:

    Rondo
    Ariza
    Brooks
    Landry
    Aldridge
    Bosh
    M. Gasol
    Bogut
    D. Lee
    Jennings
    Duhon
    Marion
    Iverson

    How can I improve my team?

    BTW, how can I compute my SS? I'm still new here. Thanks The Thief!

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  32. Norgene, the post titled 'School Time' explains exactly how to calc ur sauce. It's pretty easy. Once u do, report back n we'll check it out.

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  33. hey, can you help advise me on a trade. i'm thinking of dealing carmelo. so far the average stats per game per player for my team are: .89 treys, 17.48 pts., 5.52 rebounds, 2.79 assists, 1.15 steals, and .54 blocks. i basically need to pick up 1.66 treys per game somewhere, 12.44 rebounds per gm., 11.15 assists per gm., and 3 blocks per game (multiplied the diff between my team and the secret sauce by 13)...I have 20 pts. and 1.22 steals to give away. what do you think? i'm thinking of dealing carmelo anthony and zach randolph for either some elite player that fills my voids (maybe chris paul? can't really find anyone) or maybe melo, zach, and someone else for jkidd, paul pierce, and carlos boozer. what would you suggest?

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  34. Wes, I wish everyone were like you, this is exactly how you wanna use the sauce. I hear u on Paul, but what about Wade, the combo of dimes n blocks fits you nicely. You'd need a solid big back too, but I love u dealing melo n z, perfect time to sell high an Wade is def a buy low right now. Gettin a good enuff big back should shore up everything cept dimes n treys (unless u get a bargnani) and we can plug those after. But if you can get cp3, do it, just might b tough.

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  35. thanks very much for the insight.

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  36. oh and my team is k. martin, dirk nowitzki, carmelo anthony, lou will, nene hilario, zach randolph, luol deng, bynum, mo will, anthony morrow, rich hamilton, c.j. watson, and luke ridnour. i think i have a pretty solid team, its just that going without lou will and kev martin is making it a little tougher...

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  37. Hey, Thief. Looks like my B. Davis for K.G. deal is not going to happen. I'm thinking that K-Mart will help in points, assists, and treys when he comes back, and that I should focus my immediate attention to boards and blocks. You had mentioned a D. West & Charlie V. for Dwight Howard deal before. Should I still consider that option? In the event I do try this and it doesn't pan out(and I don't think it will) what about a lower tier player like Noah? Lastly, it's funny you mention picking up Hibbert because I had him before and dropped him, and I believe he is still on waivers in my league.

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  38. Hey thief, love the site its been a big help. Right now my teams a little injured but here it is
    Arron Brooks
    Dwyane Wade
    Danny Granger
    Antwan Jamison
    Luis Scola
    Gerald Wallace
    Al Jefferson
    Tyrus Thomas
    Chauncey Billups
    Carron BUtler
    ROdney Stuckey
    Ben Gordon
    Derek Rose
    my sauce is
    pts - 18.4
    ast - 3.2
    reb - 6
    blk - .6
    stl - 1.2
    treys - .9
    Who do u think i should move and for who?

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  39. You gotta move Danny g. Try packaging him with butler, and shoot for Paul or Deron or Nash packaged with a big man. You feel me bro?

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  40. I feel u thief. WHat u think about Danny G and caron for deron and j rich?

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  41. That would be great value for Danny g.

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