Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Five Steps to Trade Execution... Thief Style

It’s fairly easy to eye out the players on your own squad that are ripe to sell high, and equally easy to eye out players on other teams that you’re looking to either buy low, or just need to add to your squad. However actual execution is whole other level of play. Readers have been asking me lately, how do I convince people to make a deal with me that when that deal is lopsided in my favor? This is an important question indeed! Let’s run through the five steps of proper Thievin.

1. Effort
First things first, If you’re just shooting out an offer to an opponent with no communication, then it’s most likely you’ll receive a rejection. Particularly if you’re lookin to thieve. Why? Because the guy you just shot a trade offer to is going to think as he opens the email ‘Oh god, here comes and offer, this dood is trying to screw me’. 90% of the people who play any fantasy sport have this approach, zero trust. There are many reasons for this, but the biggest one is EGO. They don’t want to be the guy who made the stupid deal and gets heckled for the rest of the season. Put some effort into your offers. Find those categories your target is down in, whether he is losing them in H2H matches or just has a low score in roto. Use the comments section of a trade offer to TELL the target exactly what he is gaining by making this trade with you.


2. Massage the Numbers
Sure, you TELL the target that this deal is good for them, but you also need to SHOW your target this deal is good for them. How do you do that? You use whatever numbers you can possibly get to back your case. Say, for instance, the target is in need of treys and steals. Look at the players you are offering versus the one you get back, how can we force these numbers to show that he is indeed making a benefit of treys and steals? Maybe we add up the total for each guy this year, and use those figures. Maybe we add up the averages and use those numbers. Maybe we use their 2008 numbers. Whatever it takes, whichever is the most convincing, go with it. Two tips here: if you are offering a 2-1, be sure to add up the stats for both of your guys vs. their one guy. Many people won’t realize they will be benching one player, so won’t notice the difference. Also, if a player has been injured, and hasn’t played much or missed time, their average numbers can be wildly skewed in your favor. If a guy missed the whole season up to now, and has played two games, scoring 25 and 30 points in those games, well then tell your target he averages 27.5 points a game!

3. Create a Sense of Competition
People look for confirmation from other people. They are more inclined to want a player they believe other people want. So, after you make your offer, pop onto your message board and post ‘Trade Offers’ then proceed to tell people that you’ve fielded a couple of offers for such and such player and you’re deciding between a few. This will give your target a sense of urgency and fear that he is losing out on a deal someone else might get.

4. Let Them Think They Won
People prefer to be the one making the offer that finally gets accepted, versus accepting someone else’s offer. It’s a control and ego thing. While it may not always be possible, if you get into a series of counter proposals, don’t be afraid to take one they send you. First off it insures that a deal gets done before they leave in frustration, and secondly they’ll be more likely to have a good feeling about the trade.

5. Promotion Promotion Promotion
Once you ink the deal, get on that message board immediately and put up a glorious post. Title it, NICE TRADE, and say what a pleasure it was to ink a deal with so and so, and that you look forward to future deals, and that you really think the deal will be a big benefit to both teams. You know what this does? It let’s everyone know that you trade, and that it’s OK to trade with you. Moreover they’ll be a little jeaous because they weren’t involved in this fun aspect of fantasy sports, so they’ll instantly start trying to make a deal. Guess who they’re gonna go to for that deal?

Take the time to do it right, be patient for the right deal to show itself, and execute!

50 comments:

  1. I managed to get a trade West, B. Gordon and Noah for Pierce and JSmith in this same manner. However, it got vetoed -.-, which was very unsettling. So I "settled" for getting Pierce and McGrady for West and B.Gordon, but it was unsatisfactory. Do you think I benefitted in this trade?

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  2. What up High Flyer, haven't heard from you in a bit. I hate trade vetoes, I'll put that in my next post. First trade was obviously pure thievin, but the second one is just even steven. Not much gained or lost, non event. Better luck nextime.

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  3. hey this is aaron
    so i tried to make a deal to help my guard situation i might of made a mistake lol
    i traded tim duncan for jose calderon and devon harris. u said i needed a good guard which this reall helps me in assist but did i give up to much? thanks so much

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  4. Ayo, theifster

    So i pulled some trades you advised me to. Now I am low in rebs and blocks, while being somewhat set elsewhere. With Lou Will and Speights on the wire, I was thinking of pulling a few more 2 for 1 trades to get them benched on my team. What do you think?

    My team:
    aaron brooks
    brandon jennings
    rajon rondo
    danny granger
    caron butler
    martell webster
    emeka okafor
    ersan elyasova
    marcus beasley
    ty thomas
    john salmons
    lamarcus aldridge
    devin harris
    ben wallace
    stephen jackson


    pts: 16.275
    3's: 1.125
    rebs: 5.475
    Asts: 3.483
    Stls: 1.292
    Blks: .567

    as always thanks for doin this work.

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  5. Aaron, that IS a good deal! Re run the sauce bro!

    Pavel! What up playa, you should dump Webster for speights an deal granger for Howard. Then you'll be pimpin. I fear Danny won't be as good when he comes back, but sell em like he's a star! Get a lil extra in the deal!

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  6. haha,

    that's not bad at all, but howard just kills ft% and my team actually shoots a good clip from the line. Plus thats 2.5 3's a game that helps me stay dominant in that region. But I like your thinking here. You sure about granger though, because this is the first time that I think you're just speculating (no disrespect at all).

    But speights for martell, I was actually thinking of doing tomorrow (after martell gets one more game on thursday...). Also I hear that lou is comin back rather soon, so i need to get on that train i think

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  7. Yeah, it was a tad disappointing. According to my sauce number, I'm still in need of 3s, assists and blocks and i have an advantage in points. That being said, do you think I should offer a trade of:

    Westbrook, Stoudemire for Kidd, JSmith?

    Thanks again thief =]

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  8. Hey Thief, it's JW here...I just tried a trade where I'm getting Gerald Wallace and Ty Evans for Westbrook and Bargnani. Who do you like in that deal? GW is a Tier 2 in your categories, while Westbrook and Bargnani were not in your Tier 3.

    Its a 12 man roto, just started..here are the categories:FG% FT% 3PTM PTS OREB DREB AST ST BLK

    Thanks, keep on thievin! JW

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  9. Pavel, got this from a buddy of mine, said there was a white sox player this year with the same thing and it totally lingered an he wasn't the same. I forget the guys name, but he's a good player. I trust my source enough to downgrade granger to tier 3.

    High fly, that's a perfect offer. Good luck!

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  10. hey thief, i got some counter offers from 2 owners today.

    i get scola
    i give bargnani

    i get devin harris, charlie villanueva, and andre kirilinko
    i give jason kidd, rudy gay

    here's the sauce. (i used m. Redd's 2008 numbers)
    pts: 16.6
    rebs: 5.71
    asts: 3.35
    stls: .80
    blks: .69
    3ptm: .86

    is that harris, charlie.v, ak47 for jKidd/gay really lopsided in his favor or is it just me? right now jKidd is my best 3pt shooter and i figure since that's what cat i struggle in, i shouldn't give him up.

    Same with bargs. I give up 3's if i get scola.

    owner that has scola also has bibby, stephen jackson, okafor, kg, rondo, melo, iggy, dwade, and jameer.

    owner that has devin harris, also has reke, durant, g.Wallace, brendon Haywood, dwight howard, aaron brooks, z. Randolf, ben gordon, jRich, and dRose.

    I was thinking maybe counter ofering for devin harris and either brooks, gordon, or jRich but i'm not sure who to offer back to make it seem fair... according to his sauce numbers, he's strong in pts, rebs, & stls. ok in blks, and weak in 3s and assists.

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  11. JW, you need to run the sauce bro. Read the secret sauce post first, run yo numbers, then we can decide

    sennetor, both deals are garbage. He tryin to thieve you! Just send a reject and tell him you only entertain REAL offers. Make him come back to you again.

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  12. Trying out your tactics :P
    Still trying to work some magic for CP3. I ended up trying for Lebron too and the owner seemed almost mad lol.

    Still got some deals - going for Dwight Howard and Dwade.

    But we'll see. Hopefully I get an edge with my trade talk :). I'll keep you updated!

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  13. JW's SAUCE!

    Points: 14.39
    Assists: 2.57
    Off. Boards: 2.33
    Def. Boards: 5.46
    Treys: 0.63
    Steals: 1.21
    Blocks: 1.03

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  14. Alright JW, now we talkin. It's a good deal for you to do as we solidy you in the right cats. However we're gonna need to find you a three shooting assist guy after this. One cheap name might be Steve Blake. There's trade rumors on him so depends where he goes n if he starts. But he's the cheapest three shooting assist guy I know. Good luck!

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  15. Here would be my SAUCE if the trade goes through..

    Points: 14.67
    Assists: 2.51
    Off. Boards: 2.37
    Def. Boards: 5.82
    Treys: 0.55
    Steals: 1.34
    Blocks: 0.98

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  16. Thanks thief...I have Mike Millers numbers in there too...so my SAUCE may go up a little when he starts put in some minutes. Thanks again for educating me on how all this should go down!

    JW

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  17. Hey Thief,

    Great Site! Would you rather have Stephen Curry or John Salmons?

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  18. Anony, def Salmons I believe this HORRIBLE slump will end.

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  19. Hey Thief, here's my team. Can you please give me any advice? I think I need an assist SG:

    CP3
    Mo Williams
    Mike Dunleavy
    Gerald Wallace
    Boris Diaw
    Andrea Bargnani
    Kendrick Perkins
    Elton Brand
    Kevin Love
    Ersan Ilyasova
    Tyson Chandler
    Nate Robinson
    Jrue Holiday

    Nate Robinson and Diaw are killing it for me.

    Thanks!!!

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  20. Yes! I can help! First you need to read the post Secret Sauce, it'll show you how to tell me your sauce numbers and then we'll BOTH see what you need. Report back!

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  21. hey wats up. hows this trade. i get bargnani and eric gordon and i give scola and sjax. good trade for me?

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  22. You lose boards n gain treys, is the Sauce cool wit that?

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  23. yea remember you told me to get bargnani for scola and i said i wanted gordon also. this is the same guy. u think this trade will benefit me?

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  24. Ahhh now I can put a team to a name! Sorry I field lots of questions. Yeah for you that trade is a no brainer. INK IT BRO!

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  25. lol yea i just figured out how to put my name. ill prolly be asking u quite a few questions every now and then cuz there is a lot of good shit on here haa. btw, in response to ur trade execution, how do u suggest i sell it to him. this cud be a nice example for ppl and for me on how a pro sells a trade lmao.

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  26. Hey Thief, amazing work you do, not every day you find something like this.

    This is my team (Standard 10 team h2h ESPN 8 cats) 10 starter spots and 3 bench

    PG: Jason Kidd
    SG: Andre Iguodala
    SF: Josh Smith
    PF: Dirk Nowitzki
    C: Al Horford
    G: Russell Westbrook
    F: Al Jefferson
    UTIL: Tyreke Evans
    UTIL:Carlos Boozer
    UTIL: OJ Mayo
    Bench: Kevin Love
    Bench: Andrew Bogut
    Bench: Luis Scola

    here's the sauce on them (all 13 players avg stats factored in)

    Points: 17.59
    Assists: 3.52
    Boards: 7.67
    Treys: .62
    Steals: 1.12
    Blockss: .83

    Any thoughts? I put out a trade for CP3 (I give Dirk and Evans for CP3) and one for lebron (I give horford josh smith and westbrook for lebron and derrick rose). Are these fair trades? Any other players i should target? maybe a guard?

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  27. hey thief, Jermaine O'neal was just dropped today in a league where the best player on WW was Michael pietrus. is he worth dropping barbosa or hill, which one should i drop?

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  28. Hey Thief...I really need help
    My team is just not dominate as I had hoped, so i'm looking to overhaul. I'm willing to trade anyone. heres the squad:
    Luke Ridnour
    Dwayne Wade
    Ersan Ilyasova
    David West
    David Lee
    Ray Allen
    Wilson Chandler
    Mike Bibby
    Chris Duhon
    OJ Mayo
    BENCH: Shaq, Barbosa, Hill

    and their sauce

    PTS: 14.9
    TREYS: 1.02
    REB: 4.98
    AST: 3.45
    STL: .97
    BLK: .4

    yea, i really do need a big man, but i would also like to sure up my ASTs and TREYs in order to just flat out dominate. Any suggestions on who to target? Mayo sell high? Im also willing to trade Wade, or is it too early?

    Oh and you told me to try and trade
    Ridnour and Shaq for Noah, but the owner hasn't responded, so i plan on emailing him.

    Thanks bro, will keep you updated on my path to success.

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  29. that is the joe johnson for devin harris

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  30. i have an 8 team h2h regular 9 stats minus TO's

    my team is
    PG: chauncey billups
    SG: kobe bryant
    G: devin harris
    SF: carmelo anthony
    PF: tim duncan
    F: josh smith
    C: dwight howard
    C: ben wallace
    UTIL: allen iverson
    UTIL: josh howard
    BN: tracy mcgrady
    BN: michael redd
    BN: channing frye
    BN: kevin martin(inj)
    BN: jameer nelson(inj)

    i just dealt my joe johnson for his devin harris.

    i am trying to trade carmelo & josh smith as they are both sell highs, i have proposed josh smith or carmelo anthony for pau gasol

    would that be a good trade for me?

    my sauce is(i did not add in the players who did not have more than 10 games under their belt)

    before/after

    pts: 18.02/17.65
    reb: 6.98/6.73
    ast: 3.56/3.53
    3ptm: .91/.85
    st: 1.23/1.3
    blk: .94/.96

    did i mess up with this trade

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  31. Alex, plain n simple you are selling him rebounds, hopefully he needs em. I think u give steals too. Make sure to tell him you need the treys, def play up SJax great December games. And BE SURE to say somethin like, Gordon always gets injured, but he evens out the trade well so I'll take the risk.

    Stodds, u need treys bro, try movin scola n Evans for bargnani. Should be perfect fit.

    Aaron, good deal, harris' assists will rise. I like you dealin smith over melo for Pau so you don't lose more treys.
    Brown, I like Jerm, he got skills. If you can't pull off a quick 2-1 trade, an you need boards/blocks, I'd drop barbo for him.

    Yizzie! What up playa. U need big man stats indeed. I hear you on ast n trey too. Why not do West and a bench guy for Noah and a guard?

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  32. And remember y'all, if you wanna repay me for the advice, then spread the word bout this blog. The more people we get, the better. =)

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  33. who should i get for melo, or should i keep him?

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  34. aaron, is a melo and harris for CP3 possible? Or LBJ? If so, DO IT!

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  35. aight rainmaker, check it.
    im looking to propose this trade.
    GIVE: Mayo, Hill, Shaq
    GET: Joe Johnson, Channing Frye

    this will help my assists and treys, cuz hill and shaq are on my bench anyways.

    also do you think i should wait a bit on West, cuz the only thing hes worth right now is Darious Songila and a side of mashed potatoes.

    but anyhow, what you think about that trade (even enough) cuz ppl in my league think your a dumb*** if you offered a bad trade and get paranoid about trading with you.

    thx man, keep it real!

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  36. i have two trades proposed besides those two you just told me about

    josh smith=pau gasol

    melo=deron williams+arenas

    if they get rejected who should i put in to sweeten the deal?

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  37. yizzie, good stuff, good deals. I hear ya west's value is down, but trust me, ONLY his owners know that. Sell him like hes an All-star.

    aaron, i like the josh smith offer, the second one prolly won't fly. Try tossing in Channing Frye.

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  38. hey thief. i proposed this trade.

    tony parker, rudy gay, ken perkins

    for

    devin harris, jason richardson, brendon haywood

    i get 3's and steals
    he gets assists

    this guy really wants rudy gay and bugged me about trading him from the beginning of the season. I figure devin harris' numbers are only going up and i need jason richardson's treys.

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  39. also, should i shop bynum? with him and gasol on the floor, he's grabbing less boards but i like his fg% and blocks. what do you think?

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  40. I agree, go for it. I hear ya bout bynum but I wouldn't sell him just yet.

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  41. Yo thief! Both of my trade offers got accepted after some friendly negotiation. They better not get vetoed. Check it out:

    Westbrook, Amare for Kidd, Smith (done on a basis of needs)

    Udrih, Noah for Jack, Nene

    Man I love that second trade a LOT. Nene's value isn't going down that much anytime soon and when/if Tyrus comes back, Noah is gonna be affected.

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  42. Thief,

    Thaddeus Young is burning hot right now.
    So I'm thinking to use him to bring somebody who's not as hot right now?

    Like going for Tier 3 or 2 guy

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  43. Hey Thief,

    This is my first time posting here. I like what I've read so far. Good work. I'm in a 20 team 5 keeper h2h points league (pts= 1, reb= 1, ast= 1, stl= 1, blk= 1, and to= -1). What moves do you think I should make? Thanks in advance. This is what my team looks like now.

    Starters: pg/sg: Monta Ellis
    pg/sg: Allen Iverson
    sf/pf: Rashard Lewis
    pf/c: Al Horford
    pf/c: Chris Bosh

    Bench: pg: Kyle Lowry
    sg/sf: Wilson Chandler
    sg/sf: Q. Richardson
    sf: Grant Hill
    sf/pf: Shawn Marion
    sf/pf: Ryan Gomes
    pf: Carl Landry
    pf/c: Ben Wallace

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  44. hey thief... i just made a trade shipping off thompson and gallinari for rudy gay ....u think i did alright???

    keep up the good work homie

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  45. Fly high, nice work playa, let's see the new Sauciness!

    Anony, I like that idea a lot. I'll try an drum up a Tier three buy low for today's post.

    Yariel, that's a tuff league bro. Probably aren't many trades done I'm guessin? Do you think anyone on your bench would be a starter for another manager?

    Anony, you def just bought Gay at PEAK value (right after he posts career high points scored in game), two weeks ago you coulda dealt just gallo or just JT for Gay (well, maybe). I do like the deal but let's buy low not high. Gay can ONLY go down from here.

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  46. Thief! Check out my sickkk Sauce numbers if all my trades go through for my top 10 guys (It's a special 12-team, 5 starter 8 bench format) So I figured showing top 10 (2 players per position) gives a fair reading on what positions are covered for each:

    PG: Nash/Kidd
    SG: Wade/JRich
    SF: Pierce/Josh Smith
    PF: Jamison/Frye
    C: Bosh/Nene

    Pts: 17.37
    Rebs: 6.58
    Asts: 4.27
    3s: 1.28
    Stl: 1.13
    Blks: 0.87

    Which are all above your numbers. In the trade, my pts dropped from 18.5+ to 17.37 but there was a key increase in asts, 3s, and blocks.

    The other 3 people part of my bench would then also be: Jack, Dunleavy and McGrady which I think are very suitable backups in this 5starter league. Dunleavy's play has picked up a lot as of late, Jack's value will dip slightly with Calderon, but he'll put up consistent numbers and hopefully McGrady puts up one good night and I'll be able to sell high quickly ;-)

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  47. You're right. Not many trades happen. I feel I have too many pf and sf and not enough pg and sg. Do you agree with that? Based on my team and the league settings what guards should I be targeting? Which ones are buy low? Is there anyone on my team that you think is a sell high? My team is listed on an earlier post. Thanks again.

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  48. Oh, also thief, who should I should try to target in a small 2v1 trade. Thinking of trying to send Frye and McGrady for Ginobli, or Salmons. This would allow me to pick up Speights. Any ideas?

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  49. Yar, u need to find out who in ur league is willing to trade, and what they need. In my exp, those leagues almost never trade. I don't think sending out blind offers will work. Try post board n email. Get a dialogue going.

    FlyHigh, great work, great team. I like the guys you're selling but you can get better players back. Try goin for Noah or okafor or aldridge for big man stats.

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