Thursday, December 17, 2009

Buy Low on this Fantasy Basketball Rebounding Machine

So you’re looking at your team, checking out your Secret Sauce numbers (for reference, see post titled Secret Sauce, a list of posts can be found in the right hand side of the site) and you notice your down in Boards and Blocks a bit. Maybe even your FG% isn’t as good as it could be. Sure it’d be nice to go get Duncan or Garnett or Howard or whatever, but you don’t want to move anyone of high value. You’ve got a solid lineup and you just need a cheap UTIL player that will solidify you in those categories, someone with some upside that won’t cost you more than a current bench player, say like Courtney Lee or Jarret Jack or even like Chris Duhon. Well, you’re in luck, cause The Thief has just the right BUY LOW player for you. He’s a Boards/Blocks extraordinaire and the upside is better than you think!





BUY LOW – Emeka Okafor – F – New Orleans Hornets

Way back when, say in 2004, Emeka was actually a top prospect coming out of college. Fresh off winning the National Championship leading the UConn Huskies, Emeka was the 2nd overall pick taken by the Charlotte Bobcats. The guy is a talented Big Man. He’s pretty decent at scoring and he blocks very well. However for the first five years of his career, he was in Charlotte , land of the no PG. That makes a big difference, especially for a big man. Most Centers need a solid distributor to either work the ball inside to them on the post or to toss the ole Alley Oop for an easy score. It helps to have players that drive the lane too, since that creates offensive rebounds to put back in. Charlotte didn’t have any of this really, and Emeka put up OK career numbers.



Fast forward to today, and he’s been dealt to the New Orleans Hornets, and paired up with the best distributor in fantasy basketball since Bob Cousy was in the NBA. However an early season injury to Okafor, followed by a subsequent injury to Paul, sidelined this match made in heaven temporarily. Well, they are both back, both healthy, and have had a couple games under the belt to get used to each other this season. The time to strike is now, the cost is CHEAP (just how we like it) and the reward is BIG. Let’s take a look at the numbers:



Emeka Okafor

CAT      2009       Career

PTS      10.9          13.8

AST       0.6            0.9

REB      9.6            10.6

BLK      1.9             1.9

STL       0.7             0.8

3’s        0.0             0.0

TO’s     1.5             1.8

FG%    54.1           50.7

FT%     58.0           59.5

MIN     29:41          33:42



As you can see he isn’t far off his career numbers, but there’s room for improvement. By seasons end Okafor will definitely be a consistent double double player, averaging over 1.5 blocks a game. However there is the potential to see his points per game go for career highs, into the 14 -15 per game average. I added the minute’s category in there to show that while he is slightly down, this is MAINLY a result of playing 4 less minutes per game on average. In my opinion, in 4 minutes, Okafor call pull down a board and knock down a shot or two putting him right into the career stat line. And who knows, a little added chemistry with CP3 and this could be a bonanza. Again, he costs you next to nothing right now, so the risk of this is low and the payoff is high.



After all, if CP3 could turn Tyson Chandler into a solid basketball player, just imagine what he can do after time with Emeka Okafor!

30 comments:

  1. Hey Thief! Here's my team and secret sauce.. thanks man.. this site is awesome.

    CP3
    Mo Williams
    Mike Dunleavy
    Gerald Wallace
    Boris Diaw
    Andrea Bargnani
    Kendrick Perkins
    Elton Brand
    Kevin Love
    Ersan Ilyasova
    Tyson Chandler
    Nate Robinson
    Jrue Holiday

    Points: 14.1
    Assists: 3.09
    Boards: 6.24
    Treys: 1.05
    Steals: 1.045
    Blocks: .64

    Any advice?

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  2. Hey Thief, I finally figured out the Sauce so here is my team again:

    Antawn Jamison
    Kevin Martin
    Baron Davis
    Chris Paul
    Eric Gordon
    Allen Iverson
    Kevin Love
    David West
    Chauncey Billups
    Andrew Bynum
    Caron Butler
    Anthony Randolph
    Charlie Villanueva

    Now here is my secret sauce* I didn't include K-Mart's numbers:

    Points: 16.66
    Assists: 3.47
    Rebounds: 5.94
    Treys: 0.96
    Steals: 1.17
    Blocks: 0.56

    As you can see, I'm weak in rebounds, treys, and blocks and assists(I guess my team isn't very good!) Who can I target to improve my team? I have been offered Omeka Okafur for Baron Davis, and I have been offered Troy Murphy for Caron Butler. Should I consider both or either of those trades? I was also trying to grab Noah from someone, should I pursue it and if so, who should I offer for him? Thanks a bunch.

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  3. Matt, try shipping Chandler for okafor.

    Bando, u do butler for Murphy then diaw for okafor.

    Ink those deals boys!!

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  4. hey, how do i become par tof the team?

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  5. haha, nvm, it works now. K. This is what I really want to say...

    if the trade of granger,beasley,harris for dwill+howard doesnt work through, how else should I try to work it.

    I also have a feeling i could get d.west for jennings (is that good, or is jennings gonna hit the rookie wall according to your standards)

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  6. hahaha nice post....liked ur last line

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  7. Thanks Thief, I will try the Murphy trade. However, I don't have Diaw, I was offered Okafur for Baron Davis.

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  8. Bando, oops! Yeah def don't wanna do BD, he's WAY too good. How bout Randolph for Okafor.

    Pavel, that's a BIG deal. Let's wait n see how it goes. Patience

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  9. Hey Thief,

    On the current topic, who would you rather have, Okafor or Noah?

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  10. Hey DW, what up! I own Noah, drafted him an he's been great. I expect him n okafor to have similar end of season numbers, very similar. That said, okafor is REALLY cheap, but Noah has been good. As is, I'm tryin to work Jarret Jack for okafor, as my buy low, then try to sell Noah high.

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  11. hey thief.

    I was just proposed

    Arenas for Pierce.

    I think i asked you before but i forgot what your response was.

    After reading your blog, I think I should do it seeing as how Arenas was a buy low and Pierce was a sell high... should i do it?

    i'm weak in 3s, boards, steals, and slightly weak in assists and blocks according to the sauce.

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  12. Haats up sennator. I say INK that deal. Agent zero is starting to heat up!

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  13. cool. the trade is pending...

    should i drop perk and pick up biedrins of FA? says he should be back soon...

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  14. Hmmm, I'd rather see you deal him in a 2-1.

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  15. Cool thanks! I was also wondering, do you have any worries about Rashard Lewis this season? He seems to be hitting the 3s but his other numbers seem to be down, and his production tonight didn't really help much either. Just a bad night perhaps?

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  16. Hey Thief, the thing is the dude who offered me Okafor wants assists, that's why he asked for Davis. The only pg's I got are Davis, Billups, and CP3 which I believe are all worth more than Omeka. Are there any other buy low blocks and rebounds guys I can target? Also, do you think I should try to trade for Noah? Thanks.

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  17. DW, Shard is one of the best shooters in the game, he'll heat up, guaranteed. Though vinsanity does cut into shards boards, his dimes should rise a wee bit.

    DW, have I taught you nothing? Sell that deal bro! Tell him u know he wants assists and that Randolph has more name value than okafor, so he could take AR then deal him easier for dimes. Then tell him the mgr who owns mike bibby's been after AR for awhile! Another pssible deal for u is D West n Charlie V for D Howard. Good Luck!

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  18. Thief, you're site is the best. You're really great at putting names and numbers into perspective, anyway I have a couple of questions, I have 2 teams both in 12 teams H2H leagues only difference is one does weekly line ups the other one daily, I'm doing great in my daily league but next to last in the other one, can you please help me improve in both? I'll post specific questions under each team.

    My teams:

    Daily line ups league:

    PG: CBillups
    SG: Mo Williams
    G: Joe Johnson
    SF: Josh Smith
    PF: AJamison
    F: KLove
    C: DNowitzki
    UTIL: TMurphy
    UTIL: DRose
    B: MDunleavy
    B: SCurry
    B: RArtest
    B: MRedd
    B: Josh Howard

    I know this team looks strong however I have a lot of guys that are what you call injury concerns (DRose, JHoward, MRedd, Mdunleavy, AJamison and now Billups as well) I know I need to improve in blocks, that being said who should I get rid off and who should I hold on to.

    Weekly line ups team:

    PG: Derek Rose
    SG: Brandon Roy
    G: Joe Johnson
    G: Ron Artest
    SF: Danilo Galinari
    PF: Chris Bosh
    F: Thadeous Young
    F: Rip Hamilton
    C: Joel Pryzbilla
    C Al Horford
    UTIL: Chris Duhon
    B: MSpeights
    B: Casspi

    I just need all around help here as I mentioned I'm next to last in this league.

    Thanks Thief and keep up the GREAT WORK!!!

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  19. Carlos, I need to see the sauce numbers bro!

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  20. I'll give you my sauce numbers of my team in weekly line ups while I figure out the other one, let me warn they are not pretty at all:

    14.45 points
    .90 treys
    5.21 boards
    3.05 assists
    .81 steals
    .44 blocks

    OMG that was pitiful...thanks again Thief! This leaving Speights and Casspi on the bench.

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  21. Team with daily line ups:

    1.22 treys
    16.2 points
    5.65 boards
    3.35 assists
    1.23 steals
    .52 blocks

    sigh...that was better but again this the team with a lot of "injury concern guys" (DRose, JHoward, MRedd, Mdunleavy, AJamison and now Billups as well).

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  22. Carlo, ok weekly team, gallo n artest r killin you, but some of the other guys are just starting to get hot. Package those two up in a deal to the owner of mike bibby (he's very cheap) and try to get bibby n a tier three F back.

    Daily team, look you can't sit on injury prone guys, esp so many of them. Work to systematically ship them off for more reliability. Right now, Redd n Dunleavy r perfect sells. I don't worry bout Roses health tho. Try moving Redd n Dun for a solid Tier 3 guy like GWall, J-Rich, Aldridge etc.

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  23. Basically punt 3's in my weekly league? Thanks again man you're a genious!

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  24. Hey Thief, thanks for the help. I was wondering, since this guys wants Baron Davis, maybe we can both add another player. I'll add Randolph and these are the guys he has I can ask him to add:

    Granger
    Z. Randolph
    Garnett
    Bogut
    S. Jackson
    Jason Thompson
    Wilson Chandler
    B. Jennings
    Michael Beasley
    Gallinari

    I figure I can pick up 2 guys, include one of them in a trade to get a player like Dwight Howard, and then I can pick Jameer Nelson off waivers to help replace B. Davis' production. What do you think?

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  25. Bando, then we either do Davis for Garnett or we do Davis for okafor and Stephen Jackson.

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  26. Ok, I think I prefer the Okafur Stephen Jackson combo. This means I would have to drop A. Randolph to make room. If this goes through, should I still consider making a push for Dwight Howard? Thanks.

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  27. i asked for Garnett straight up and he didn't go for it. So he offered me garnett and gallinari for Davis and Andrew Bynum. I was thinking about countering with the two he wanted from me for KG and Bogut.

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  28. Bando, send him a reject, tell him you're gonna make the same offer for Duncan cause that guy is interested too. Tell him your offer is kg for Davis n Randolph and if he wants to ink it, then come see you before you pull the trigger on Duncan.

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  29. Ok, cool. I hate to keep bothering you, but do you think I should still try that Dwight Howard deal regardless of how this one turns out? Thanks again.

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  30. Wait to see if this works first

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