Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Buy Low On This All-Star

Over the last week or so I've fielded more and more questions from readers looking to rid themselves of the services of David West. I could understand their frustration given his slow start and inconsistent play of late. However as the cries grew louder I decided to look a little further into Mr. West's numbers. As you've probably gathered by now, I'm big on anyone playing alongside CP3. That is, if you are a reasonably decent basketball player, and you play with CP3, your numbers go up, especially scoring. David West is the best player that plays alongside Paul.

Alright so we like his team situation. And the two have played together for long enough to build some serious chemistry. Thus I'm signaling the alarm, it's time to Buy Low on Mr. David West. Let's take a look at the numbers:

DAVID WEST - F - New Orleans Hornets
CAT 2008 2009 Career
PTS 21 16.2 15.4
REB 8.5 7.1 7.2
AST 2.3 2.4 1.7
STL 0.6 0.7 0.7
3's 0.1 0.1 0.1
BLK 0.9 0.7 0.8
TO 2.1 2.8 1.6
FG% 47.2 46.5 48.2
FT% 88.4 85.5 84.1

As you can see, David is slightly better than his career numbers, but pretty far off his 2008 season which was an impressive campaign. Two factors at work for the current slump, a slow start to the season coupled with an injury to CP3. I dug deep into West's career, looking into his game log's for both the 08 and 07 seasons. It's noticeable that he often starts a little slower, and definitely performs better in late December through January than he does in November.

Basketball players, like baseball players, can be streaky. There's plenty of varying reasons for this occurrence, we don't need to concern ourselves with them. Instead, it's best to try and identify those streaks and use them to our advantage. I imagine the current cost in a trade for David West would be something around one of the following - Udrih, Illyasova, Crawford, Scola, or Battier. If we're wrong, you haven't lost much production going from Scola to West. But if we're right, and we will be, the payoff will be huge.

Now GO INK THAT DEAL!

38 comments:

  1. Hey, Thief

    I'm still trying to sell Tyreke (even as you once said I *LOVED* him :P), although it might not be for the same reasons you listed in the entry you "devoted" to him earlier...LOL I simply need more rebounds and I have some assists to spare... But the owners of players like Rudy Gay and Kevin Durant (who I'm targeting in a 2-1) are awfully passive and one of my offers was even timed out. :(

    The owner of Antawn Jamison I know I can at least talk to - do you think I should try and trade Reke for old Antawn?

    Here is once again my info:

    My team (ten team roto league):

    PG - Jason Kidd
    SG - Tyreke Evans
    G - Derrick Rose
    SF - LeBron James
    PF - Kevin Love
    F - J.R. Smith
    C - Andrea Bargnani
    C - Marc Gasol
    Util - Brandon Jennings
    Util - Jeff Green
    Util - Mike Dunleavy
    Util - Danilo Gallinari
    Util - Stephen Curry

    Sauce:

    Points: 16.15
    Assists: 3.96
    Boards: 5.60
    Treys: 1.32
    Steals: 1.16
    Blocks: 0.62

    ReplyDelete
  2. yup! Try reke n gallinari (or curry) for twan

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hey Thief! hope you had a good weekend!

    Mike bibby just hit the WW in my league.

    Should I drop tony parker for him? Tony parker's been truly disappointing so far through the season and he was a draft pick so it's tough for me to let him go but I do need 3's and assists. I know I'm giving up around 2 assists a game with Bibby but I pick up about 1.5 3's. I feel 3's are a little harder to come by...

    Your 3 specialist chris duhon is also on the WW but I'm not sure who to drop for him..

    This is my team right now..

    B.Roy
    M.Redd
    T.Parker (or M.Bibby)
    R.Gay
    L.Aldridge
    A.Bargnani
    K.Perkins
    A.Bynum
    Kev.Martin
    P.Pierce (trade pending for G.Arenas)
    M.Dunleavy
    J.Kidd
    P.Gasol

    I also have a few other trades out there, currently trying to get Dirk and Caron, as well as Joe Johnson and Jeff Green. Those 2 managers are either not active, or sitting there thinking about the trade.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Whoa, I just noticed Jason Terry is on the WW too!

    Would he be a better acquistion than Mike Bibby?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Nah, I don't think a 2-1 deal will work here - I just talked to Antawn's owner and she says she is satisfied with what she has, so she will probably not be willing to drop a second player in order to get someone like Gallinari or Curry. But I'll try just Reke for Twan and see what happens... ;) Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Senn, you need to go on a public campaign to increase trading in your league. Then unload as many 2-1 as you can!

    Christo, you got a chick playin in your Bulgarian league? That's hot!

    ReplyDelete
  7. Trust me.. I've been trying.

    These guys just love their players and are unwilling to give up something they are good at.

    One guy has Dwight, Brendon Haywood, Gerald Wallace, AND zach randolf and He doesn't wanna give up any of those 4 guys because they've been posting great numbers recently. I, as well as all my friends, were telling him how he could afford to lose 1 of those guys since he's very strong in Pts/Rebs/Blks, but he doesn't want to... Just retarded..

    ReplyDelete
  8. LOL, yeah... She is a sports (radio) journalist. And I am too, sort of... Only I'm in a smaller city, so there isn't much sport around here to talk about on the radio...LOL Hence I have too much time to spare, so I watch NBA games and play fantasy. Heh.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Hey Thief really need your help on how to improve my team

    16 team head to heads cat league

    cats are field goals made field goal % free throws made three pointers made offensive rebounds defensive rebounds assists steals blocks turnovers double doubles triple doubles points

    My Sauce
    FGM 5.63
    FG% 0.47
    FTM 3.03
    3PM 1.07
    OREB 1.33
    DREB 3.62
    AST 4.42
    STL 1.08
    BLK 0.98
    TO 2.22
    DD 0.22
    TD 0.00
    PTS 15.35

    Starters
    PG Chris Paul
    SG Manu Ginobili
    SF Josh Smith
    PF Andrea Bargnani
    C Roy Hibbert
    UTIL Aaron Brooks

    Bench
    Daniel Gibson
    Gerald Henderson
    Ryan Gomes
    Earl Clark
    Tyrus Thomas
    Jason Thompson
    DeJuan Blair
    IR Kevin Martin
    IR Yao Ming

    ReplyDelete
  10. fo sho, man, i trust you thiefster.

    so should i do the granger/aldridge for amare/martin?

    pts: 16.275
    3's: 1.125
    rebs: 5.475
    Asts: 3.483
    Stls: 1.292
    Blks: .567

    ReplyDelete
  11. hey Thief - I just made an offer involving West. I don't necessarily want to get rid of him but I sent out this offer:

    I give: Bosh+West+Felton
    for: Durant+Billups

    Not sure if he'll accept but its worth a shot. I'd be picking up L.Will from the WW if he accepts

    ReplyDelete
  12. thief-the owner of dirk will not budge any other players to go after with melo and cdr?

    ReplyDelete
  13. Hey Thief,

    A little trade analysis please?


    My Team:
    Kidd
    Tyreke
    Lou Will
    Monta Ellis
    Frye
    Landry
    Bynum
    Flynn
    Dalembert
    Ben Wallace


    Heres my sauce:
    Pts: 15.92
    Ass: 3.65
    Rebs: 6.48
    Treys: 1.02
    Stls: 1.06
    Blks: .77

    This is a 12 person roto league in which I am last in points, assists, and FT% (and almost last in 3's)

    I give:
    Frye
    Tyreke
    Granger

    I get:
    Terry
    Artest
    Kaman


    When I average out the sauce numbers for my 3 vs his 3, they are almost identical! Im talking, like to the tenth of a point in almost all categories (and I did not factor in Granger in any of them).

    However, I guess this deal comes down to how much production Reke will lose when K Mart returns. At first, I figured tons. But now, with Reke playing so well, I cant help but think that maybe his production wont dwindle very much at all. I guess the only way I make out on this deal is if Reke's production dwindles a LOT and Granger's injury is as bad as everyone says it is.

    ReplyDelete
  14. my sauce is

    PTS: 16.8
    3PTM: 1.0
    REB: 6.0
    AST: 3.3
    STL: 1.2
    BLK: .8

    should i trade

    my devin harris for his derrick rose?

    ReplyDelete
  15. if he doesnt accept who should i put in from my team to get him to accept

    my team:
    Chris Paul
    Chancey Billups
    Devin Harris
    Louis Williams
    Kobe Bryant
    Paul Pierce
    Kevin Martin
    Josh Howard
    Courtney Lee
    Tim Duncan
    Channing Frye
    Marreese Speights
    Dwight Howard
    Samuel Dalembert
    Erick Dampier

    his team:
    LeBron James
    Amar'e Stoudemire
    Al Jefferson
    David Lee
    Derrick Rose
    Rajon Rondo
    Charlie Villanueva
    Ben Gordon
    Tony Parker
    Zach Rnadolph
    Luol Deng
    Aaron Brroks
    Marc Gasol
    Brendan Haywwod
    Danilo Gallinari

    ReplyDelete
  16. GB, you don't need bargs, deal him with a bench player for D Howard.

    Pavel, def, INK IT BRO!

    Intro, INK IT!

    Jsr, who's available?

    Notdj, def not a good trade. You should b gettin more for those players. I like u dealin granger, but look a few posts above yours, see what pavel is getting for him.

    ReplyDelete
  17. haywood and gerald wallace are on the same team kg or amare idk who i sould go for should i be aiming for a 2-1 or a 2-2 with melo and cdr?

    ReplyDelete
  18. Hey thief I got one team with
    Chris Paul
    JR Smith
    Rashard Lewis
    Antwan Jamison
    Emeka Okafor
    Mo Williams
    John Salmons
    Monta Ellis
    Mehmet Okur
    Chris Duhon
    Eric Dampier
    Al Thornton
    Kevin Garnett

    Their sauce is
    Points- 15.14
    Blocks- .66
    Steals- 1.15
    Assits- 3.18
    Boards- 5.68
    3pms- 1.1

    One guy has Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah, I thought maybe I could try and trade for them. Noah had 21 boards! Any ideas or don'trade?

    ReplyDelete
  19. Hey thief. Troy Murphy and Lou Williams for Brendan Haywood and Charlie villanueva? I need blocks badly. You've said my other sauce numbers were good. I see no negative to this trade. I already have Jennings, d-will, and Aaron Brooks at pg. Boozer, love, camby, and beasley as my other bigs. I only have one players who gets more than 1 bpg. And that's camby. Going strictly by stats, can you tell me if this is good? Or would before and after sauce help?

    ReplyDelete
  20. I decided not to go through with the trade since przybilla went down for the season, so they will lean even heavier on lamarcus. So im trying to rework my trade to be able to get kmart/amare without giving up aldridge. is that wise tho?

    ReplyDelete
  21. hey thief,

    so i just traded ray allen for david west. do you think it is worth it?

    and also i was offered gerald wallace for kevin love. i want to accept it, but i was wondering what you thought about it with gerald wallace's injury prone stuff.

    SAUCE:
    PTS:17.92
    REBS:7.52
    AST:3.55
    3PT:1.45
    STL:1.28
    BLK:1.12

    ReplyDelete
  22. Hey Thief,

    Going back to your sell high on Andrew Bogut, what do you think about this deal? Am I gaining even a little bit or am I giving up too much?

    Chris Bosh + Andrew Bogut for Dirk Nowitzki + Chris Anderson (planning on dropping him for Dampier, Roy Hibbert, Pryzbilla, or any other producing center on the waiver wire)

    10 team H2H league using 11 stats (standard 8 + TOs, FTM, and 3PT%). My current sauce before the trade:

    PTS: 14.69
    REBS: 5.53
    AST: 3.32
    3PT: 0.95
    STL: 1.09
    BLK: .73

    ReplyDelete
  23. Biedrins got picked up off the WW... a day before I was going to.. DAMMIT!

    Should I pick up Josh Howard off the WW or is he still a gamble?

    ReplyDelete
  24. Al, good call. Try rashard Lewis n al Thornton for Noah n rose.

    Chatta, it's OK, not much of a return on Murphy, but if it helps out the squad, ink it

    Aaron, try Harris n frye for rose n Gordon.

    Carlo, both outstanding trades. INK EM N ROLL!

    Anthony, I'd feel better if you scored LBJ for that price. Just that you lose so many blocks. I like you movin those two guys, but I wouldn't move em together for less than a Tier one player.

    No ones season will be won or lost due to biedrins or JoHo, so no need to worry bro. I'd add Howard tho if I had a roster spot.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Yo thief, it's WeFlyHigh again. I'm still fixing up my team, and I'm liking the way its shaping out to be. However, right now I'm trying to target Kobe as the guy who has him is needing some depth. He wants at least amare.

    In trade talks over the chat box after some talks his second latest offer was:

    Kobe, Iverson and (puke) Nate Robinson for
    Amare, Speights, and Okafor.

    And I really hated this deal, so I tried taking out Speights, and putting in Przybilla instead, and then his final offer was

    Kobe, Iverson, W. Bynum for
    Amare, Speights, Okafor.

    Now I still don't like this deal, and told him so trickily, but then he had to go before we could continue. My sauce numbers are still variable as I already have another trade that is accepted pending veto, so it'll be a struggle to calculate them again.

    But here's my team:
    PGs: Mo Will, Calderon
    SGs: Iggy, SJax, Salmons
    SFs: Carter, LBJ
    PFs/Cs: Bargs, Amare, Okafor, Speights, KG, Przy, Noah (21 rebounds today!)
    IR: Mike Miller

    Here's his team:
    PGs: Sessions, W. Bynum, Nelson (just traded Nelson for carter a couple days ago.. so I don't think he's willing to give him up)
    SGs: Robinson, Iverson, Kobe, Barbosa
    SFs: Casspi, Gomes, QRich, C.J. Miles
    PF/C: Al Jefferson and Dwight Howard.

    So he's very thin on the front line, hence him looking at my big men. He's not willing to give Al Jeff or Howard at all, and unlikely to give up Nelson... is any combo of 2 people + kobe apart from those 3 players worth it for me to give up Amare, Speights, and Okafor?

    Any help would be appreciated thief..Thanks again :)

    ReplyDelete
  26. and also should i drop hibbert for carl landry? or keep faith in hibbert. as he did get 6 blks today =].


    SAUCE:
    PTS:17.92
    REBS:7.52
    AST:3.55
    3PT:1.45
    STL:1.28
    BLK:1.12

    ReplyDelete
  27. and i just got offered aaron brooks for hibbert bcuz the guy needs blks. should i do this?

    ReplyDelete
  28. Yo thief! Awesome site, I've been following your blog for months now but the "Post a comment" box is (for some reason) disabled in our office.

    Anyway, I would love to hear your tips on how to fix this rock bottom God-Awful team (my other teams are mediocre to legit except for this one). Looks bad on paper, plays worse in fantasy. But I have no plans on giving up, I would at least want to crack the top 6.

    Here's my team:

    Jamal Crawford
    Kevin Durant
    CJ Watson
    Anthony Morrow
    Anthony Randolph
    Ben Wallace
    Tim Duncan
    Erick Dampier
    Shane Battier
    Michael Redd
    Allen Iverson
    Beno Udrih
    Andris Biedrins

    Saucy Numbers:

    Points: 12.43
    Assists: 2.36
    Treys: 0.73
    Rebs: 5.44
    Blks: 0.77
    Stls: 0.93

    Recent transactions: Dropped Beno Udrih for Mareese Speights. Traded Devin Harris, Blake Griffin and Larry Hughes for Tim Duncan, picked up Iverson and Michael Redd in the process.

    Thanks a lot thief and more power to your blog!

    ReplyDelete
  29. What do you mean I don't get much in return for Murphy?( Murphy and Lou Williams for Haywood and charlie v). Like do you think I could get better value out of him? My league thinks all white players are trash, so that puts Murphy on the undesirable list. This is tough. With my circumstances though, I think this is a good deal. I have plenty of threes and rebounds, which Murphy all is. Charlie is pretty similar to Murphy if he starts

    ReplyDelete
  30. What's good thief,

    I just received the trade offer Felton & Terry for my Mayo.

    My Sauce:
    15.62 Pts
    2.96 Asts
    5.86 Rebs
    1.04 treys
    .94 Stls
    .64 Blks

    Starters:
    Dirk
    Joe Johnson
    Thompson
    Frye
    Gallinari
    Bibby
    Brook Lopez
    Aldridge
    Mayo
    Ariza
    Tony Parker

    Recently acquired:
    Nelson
    Varejao
    Grant Hill(Vanilla Gorilla went down)

    Trading managers team:
    Rondo
    Terry
    Felton
    Bosh
    Pau Gasol
    Chris Douglas-Roberts
    S-Jax
    Harrington
    Bogut
    Boozer
    J.R Smith
    Chalmers
    J O'neal

    Should I ink this deal or is there a counter offer that I should offer to him to boost my sauce?

    Good looking out thief!

    ReplyDelete
  31. Hello, this is Epiphany
    Might be able to get Wade...
    Is Roy/Speights(or someone else)
    for Wade good?
    If not for Speights, Who else can I got for 2 for 1 for Wade? Right now, I have a Roy for Wade straight up, but that prolly won't go through...
    So...
    I have Tyrus Thomas, J.Harden, Michael Redd as some possibilities to add in the 2 for 1.

    ReplyDelete
  32. hi thief, first time to post here.. here's my team btw..

    (9 cats including TOs, 8 team roto league at 2nd place)

    Steve Nash
    Kobe Bryant
    Andrei Iguodala
    Josh Smith
    David Lee
    Marcus Camby
    Chris Kaman
    Andrew Bynum
    Tyreke Evans
    Erick Dampier
    Danilo Gallinari
    Louis Williams
    Louis Scola
    Ersan Ilyasova
    Jameer Nelson

    and here's my sauce:
    pts- 16.2
    treys- 0.7
    ast- 3.6
    boards- 7.1
    stl- 1.1
    blk- 0.9

    iv read your post on the players that need to be traded now so i offer the other manager Camby for his P.Gasol..im down at treys, can u give me some suggestions on who to trade and get who to improve my team..thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  33. Do you think it's time to sell Melo?

    ReplyDelete
  34. FlyHigh, what up playa. Look he's gotta throw in Nelson, end of story. Either that, or u do Amare n speights for Kobe n AI.

    Carlo, if landry is on your ww, and the dood wants hibbert, then work a 2-1 with him. Ship him hibbert + someone for a tier two or three player. Then grab landry.

    Makoy, send out these three offers to start. Redd for Jameer Nelson. Redd n durant for CP3, Redd and B Wall for Deron. That last one is a prayer, but it don't hurt to try. Good luck player, report back!

    Chatta, that's exactly what I mean. You take a pretty big hit across the board, except in blocks, by doin this deal, just so u know.

    Eqawn, send him back Gallinari n
    Mayo for Rondo, see if he's down. Rondo would really help you.

    Epiph, speights or redd fo sho

    Fran, package up Scola n Illyasova and go shopping for a 3 pt shooter. Try mayo, Nelson, j-rich, rashard, try em all!

    Kobe, shiiiiiiiiiit I thought so right after his fifty point game. The guy is currently ranked second or third overall, he can't possibly go higher!!

    ReplyDelete
  35. should i give away jason kidd and jason thompson for aaron brooks and antwan jamison

    secret sauce:
    fg% 0.464 ft% 0.794 3ptm 0.8
    pts 14.0 reb 6.3 ast 3.3 st 1.1 blk 0.7

    ReplyDelete
  36. Walrus, no way, you can't afford to lose those dimes.

    ReplyDelete