Amare breaks out, Oden breaks down, and the latest Buy Low candidates

All I can say is WOW what a huge night in the NBA! Greg Oden down for the season! This is a huge blow to many teams, as Oden was having a great start to the season. Fear not! So long as you act quickly, and GRAB JOEL PRYZBILLA, you'll be fine. Joel has filled in for Oden for many games in the past and his numbers are very similar. We can't look to compare because I don't have a breakdown on just Joel's starting numbers, so you'll have to trust The Thief here for a bit.

Amare! Holy cow you didn't even give us a week to snag you on the cheap! 18 points and 21 boards last night and you can forget about a manager jumping ship now. No need to dwell on spilled milk here, there's always another buy low right around the corner...

Buy Low: LaMarcus Aldridge - F - Portland Trailblazers
Maybe some of you saw this coming, maybe some haven't made the connection yet, but with Oden out of the picture Aldridge instantly becomes fantasy gold. Add in a slow start to the season and you have the perfect Buy Low candidate, so long as you move fast. Let's take a look at the numbers:

Lamarcus Aldridge 2009 career
Points 14.8 15.3
Boards 7.7 6.9
Dimes 1.8 1.4
Treys .2 .1
Blocks .5 1.1
Steals .4 .7
TO's 1 1.3
FG% 47.3 48.6
FT% 81.7 76.8

It almost jumps off the page at you doesn't it? And once you see it, you instantly connect the dots. Here let me help: Aldridge has averaged 1.1 blocks per game over his career but only .5 this year, what gives? Ohhhhhh yeah, he plays with that beast blocker Oden, who averages (what seems like) 50 per game. Oh wait, Oden just went out on a stretcher last night! Aldridge should rebound in those Blocks per game with Oden out, and looks to be improving everywhere else. But remember, it's all about who you dish off to make the deal a good one. I'd be trying to dump either a Jason Thompson level character (the Sell High window here is closing fast) or if you have space try a 2-1 type deal.
1>is he on a new team? NO
2>was there an injury? YES TO ODEN :)
3>is he old? NO

Buy Low: Devin Harris - PG - NJ Nets
This is a stretch for me today, but I gotta tell you, I've watched Devin play and that what makes up the difference for me. He has the talent, and he has one of those situations that make me heavy on a guy: his team dealt away a Superstar still in his prime (Jason Kidd) to make room to start him. Nobody knows a players talent like his coach and his organization, and the Nets say this kid has talent. I won't go to the numbers here because they don't do it justice. Suffice it to say Devin is above his career averages and below his great year last year. I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

As a PG it's important to have scorers around you. The trio of Brook Lopez, Courtney Lee and Chris Douglas Roberts should equal significant dimes for Harris going forward. His current discount is purely attributable to a slow team start and a slew of injuries. Importantly, he's also shooting 33% on the season compared to a career average of 45% and never a season below 43%. This is gold for us. Devin is due to ramp up practice on shooting and start dropping at a higher clip. Remember the MEAN REVERSION formula too, for him to finish the season at 43% means the REST of the season he'll need to be shooting north of 45% on average, and you can take that to the bank and cash it in. I'd rate Harris in the same ballpark as Derrick Rose, and if you need a solid source of assists (look for a 7 per game average by years end), this is a viable target. He comes cheap right now, so don't go giving up the farm to get him.

One last point I want to make in today's post is about the PSYCHOLOGICAL game in fantasy sports. For The Thief, this is as important as any other aspect of the game. I am constantly using the league message board to spew propaganda about my players, particularly the one's I want to Sell High. I was a beast tossing up glorious posts about Jason Thompson during his early season run. I created an atmosphere where everyone wanted this guy. Moreover I'm taking every opportunity to tell another manager why they need to Sell Low on a player, so I can Buy him Low from them :) For Devin Harris, I'm playing up the Nets record, his abysmal FG%, and his injuries to plant the seed for a future trade.

Now get out there and DOMINATE