Timing is everything. Sending out trades at just the right time can be the difference between acceptance and rejection. On a daily basis we are given a barrage of information whose sole intent is to scream at us ‘Act on me Now!’. Fortunately, much of the information we see is transparent in that we can decipher the validity of it. Other times, it’s too difficult to parse through and people tend to make the error of acting before digesting. Here’s what I can tell you in general, if you have to rush into something, you weren’t properly prepared for it and the result will likely bite you in the arse.
This morning I issued out a report on the trade rumors swirling around the Kings and the Mavs. I tried to be as clear as I could in saying that we need to wait for more clarification before acting. Still, the important thing here is that we be ready to act when the time is right. By analyzing and diagnosing the situation, knowing which players to grab and which to avoid, we ensured ourselves in a position to make the right move when others are still digesting the news. Trust me, when the time comes to act, you’re going to know it. It’ll be loud and clear. Statements will be issued to the tune of ‘well maybe the Kings could move Martin’ or ‘the Kings are open to all trade discussions’. Pieces of information that will be irrelevant to THEM will be key to US. Knowing that Josh Howard will be the big winner in the deal, and acting when our confidence in the deal rises to say 80%, means we’ll likely get Howard at his current low value just before others realize his future value. We are prepared.
Another piece of news came out; Brandon Roy is going to miss the next 2-4 games with a hammy pull. Now I don’t know about you, but I’ve never heard of a player missing a season because he pulled his hamstring. Even if the re-evaluation next week goes bad, he’ll likely only miss another week, two at the max after that. I can tell you though, without having Joe Schmoe to lean on, many of his owners are scared out of their gourd right now and itching to deal him on the cheap. By timing a trade offer just right, you increase your chances of snagging Roy Roy
What I’m trying to get at here is that you almost never have to rush into something. News is going to be released every day involving every player and every team and there always a play that’s developing. The important thing to do is focus on one or two key developments, plan your strategy regarding those developments, then time your actions accordingly. You say ‘I want LBJ, and I’ll give up GWall and AI to get him’. That can happen for sure. But the best time to send that trade isn’t right this minute, it’s going to be after tonight’s game if AI goes 20 points and 7 dimes and GWall does his thing. It’s going to be right after LBJ has a bad outing, or the owner of LBJ’s entire team has a bad night and he gets the urge to make a move. The best Thievin trades you’re ever going to make are going to be those ones where you included the right players, targeted the right manager, all at the right time.
So in the future, when your getting ready to make an offer, ask yourself ‘am I better off waiting another day to time this. Could tonight’s game have an outcome that will shift things further in my direction?’ If tonight’s game passes and your setup doesn’t come, so what. Take a step back and wait for the next set up. Every single player in fantasy that’s going to make a trade with you is at least going to look at the last couple of games for each player involved. Use that information to your advantage and strike when the time is right. Conversely, trying to strike when the time is wrong will not only increase the chance of rejection, but it also decreases the amount of attention your target manager will give to your next offer.
I hope you all find this useful. Now let’s get some Brandon Roy offers ready to go!
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