Position Scarcity is Bunk

That’s right I said it, position scarcity is bunk. So the next time you’re getting ready to draft and some service tells you that you need to use their ‘customized rankings’ because they take into account ‘Position Scarcity’, please save your loot. For those unfamiliar with the term, position scarcity essentially means that there aren’t enough players that perform well at the particular position, so you should move that position up the order in your ranking sheets. While this comes into play mainly for drafting, if you buy a service that factors it in, you’ll receive rankings throughout the year. Let’s take a look:

To start, the way position scarcity is determined is by running the average stats for all players, then comparing the stats to other players at the same position. If there are large jumps between what the top few produce and the rest of the group, the position is considered scarce. In basketball it’s often either true Centers or Point Guards that get this label. The formulas used will factor in how deep your league drafts, then determine if there’s enough players at each position that serve you well enough to fill out a roster. So if we had a 2 position league (PG and C) with one stat category (points), and the top 3 PG’s averaged 20 points with the next 9 averaging 17 while the top 3 Centers averaged 20 points with the next 9 averaging 12, these services would tell you to grab one of those 3 Centers before grabbing the 4^th PG. Ya feel me? It’s all about the relative value.

Now this would be fine and dandy if we were just a bunch of math geek stat junkies that didn’t actually play fantasy sports. But we aren’t. We’re a group of baller’s that follow our league and our team every day and constantly work to make it better. That means we constantly monitor our waiver wire and make the necessary moves. When it comes to my turn in a draft, I take the next best available guy at the position I need to fill. End of story. If I have an open Utility slot, I take the next best available guy period. This is why we use Tiers here and not Rankings. If I need a PG and we’re into the second tier of players, I’m taking a PG from that second Tier. If we’re into that same tier and I have an open utility slot, I’m taking the guy I like best from that Tier, regardless of the position he plays and how scarce it is.

Why? Because every single year there is always an FA wire player that plays well enough to be a starter on any team, at every position. So long as we know where we are weak, we can handle anything. If I have the option of taking Carlos Boozer and Lamarcus Aldridge versus taking Boozer and Tony Parker because ‘there was a run on PG’s and/or it’s a scarce position’, I’m taking the former every time. Then I’m going to enter the season knowing that I’m weak at the PG position, and I’ll scour that WW for PG’s every day. I’ll grab up the hottest player after all the early games until I find one going on a streak. This season would’ve likely netted you a Tyreke Evans or Brandon Jennings, Reke has been good throughout, Jennings had a very hot start. From there I’d be sending out numerous 2-1 trade offers until I netted that top PG I wanted, and still get to keep Lamarcus Aldridge and Carlos Boozer.

The best part is, I’ll have little competition from people on the FA wire because they all went after the same position in the draft. Everyone will have their PG’s and will likely be looking elsewhere. You could name a guy that was FA wire in almost every league to start the season, that would have filled out the weak spot in your roster nicely, and if you timed a trade just right, you’d have traded up to a Tier two or three player. Marc Gasol, Tyreke Evens and Jennings, Luol Deng, Danilo Gallinari, Channing Frye…..

So the next time someone tells you ‘Hey, I can give you a rankings sheet that will factor in your league size and position scarcity’, tell em, ‘No thanks bub’. Take the next best available player, and work your magic.

I hope everyone finds the new Analyzer useful. I think I’m done adding to it, but keep an eye out for the weekly stat update on Monday. I’ve been working on one for baseball and hope to have it ready for use soon.