Minutes + Stability = Production?

Today’s post isn’t going to be much of a post at all. Instead I’d like to point you in the direction of a fantastic article I read this morning on ESPN. John Cregan is a fantasy basketball analyst for ESPN and he issued a piece yesterday titled “Best, Worst rotations for Fantasy”. Inside he describes the key components to fantasy basketball production: stability and minutes. In short, he argues that teams who distribute the maximum amount of minutes to the fewest amount of players, and having those players themselves be stable, are keys to a team being ripe for fantasy production. He then goes on to list the top 5 and bottom 5 teams with regards to this style.

I think this is a good read, but for totally the opposite reason Mr. Cregan suggests. While I completely agree that doling out 35+ minutes per game to a group of All-Star caliber players is going to produce some excellent fantasy stats, and indeed has produced excellent fantasy stats so far, I think targeting these teams for players in the second half of the season could be a disastrous strategy. Look, at the end of the day, these guys are still human beings, superb physical specimens true, but still human beings. They get tired and worn down just like anybody else, albeit at a slower pace. The top team listed on Mr. Cregans article is the Memphis Grizzlies, so let’s take a quick look at them. The Memphis Grizzlies have 4 starters averaging over 35 minutes per game (Randolph, Gasol, Gay, Mayo). I’ll pick just one, Marc Gasol. Gasol has been producing like none of us ever imagined this year, mainly because this is only his second year in the league. He’s also averaged 5 more minutes per game this year than he did last year, his first in the NBA. Now I don’t personally know Mr. Gasol’s workout routine, but simple reasoning would alert you to the fact that he is at more risk of missing time or slowing down going forward when compared to a player who is either used to playing those type of minutes (done it for a few seasons) or one that only averages 30 MPG.

OK, so there are higher odds there, sure. But there’s more to it than just that. You see, you’ve got a team of 4 Marc Gasol’s out there. Mayo is averaging 38 MPG in just his second year. Rudy Gay is averaging career high MPG at just under 40, and even Zach Randolph, who’s been in the league since 2001 is averaging career highs in MPG. Now we’re talking about higher odds, that is, the odds just one of these guys misses significant time or breaks down in the second half of the season.

Now I have a new question for you. How will the rest of the starters be impacted if one of these guys misses time? If Mayo is out, and thus they lose the outside shooting threat, can Gasol and Z be as effective inside? If Z goes down, will defenders be able to move out of the middle more and cover Mayo tighter? We don’t know, but it’s reasonable as well to assume that there will be at least some detriment.

For me, the sweet spot is a player averaging 30-35 MPG. It’s a GOOD thing he has a replacement to give him a rest off the bench. It means he’ll be MORE effective while he’s playing. Sure I’ve got CP3, and he averages 38 MPG, and yeah that does scare me, but it’s CP3 not OJ Mayo. Anyway, the article is still a good read and has good insights, so here’s the link, I hope you enjoy.

And when your done reading it, let me know what you think about the competing analyses too, or even offer your own separate conclusion.