Sunday, January 24, 2010

The Hunter Becomes The Hunted

Before I begin, a few quick notes from last night's games: VC and Jameer both looked good last night, even if it was an OT game. Elton Brand is back in the starting rotation, how does Eddie Jordan still have a job? Boobie Gibson is the latest Cavalier PG, grab him for 3's only. Michael Beasley gets better and better. Taj Gibson over Tyrus Thomas, nuff said! Carlos Delfino, universal add. Barbosa out for surgery, Richardson in, Frye's minutes still limited. Chris Paul is hands down the MVP. Also, I'll have the updated basketball analyzer out tonight, with updated stats, and will hopefully get a baseball analyzer out too. Finally I'm experimenting with some new add formats, if any of them are bothering you, speak up!

On to the post!!

In back to back games now, Kevin Martin has looked nothing short of horrible. If you're an owner, like me, you're not too happy about his lack of production, and particularly the fact that he can't hit the broad side of a barn. Wise managers in my league have starting sending ME lowball offers to try and sneak him away on the cheapy cheap. I'm holding. If you look at last nights game, none of the Sac players did very well. I'd love to hear from someone who watched the game, that could provide some insight into whether Kevin looks bothered by the wrist, or if it's a matter of him and Reke learning to work together. Given the fact that Martin dropped 23 points twice in the last 5 games on I'm not overly concerned, but he has been inefficient in shooting in every game since returning.





If you are in a solid position of strength, now would be an ideal time to target Martin in a deal. Timing is everything and you might just catch that one fed up manager looking to fire sell him before it's too late. I plan to give Martin another two games before deciding if I should bench him or not. Either way, I'm not selling here.

But this brings up a good point. I know I make the case each time I recommend a guy regarding the risk. Some buy low players are low risk, some are higher. Particularly when we get to this point in the season, it's not so much about a guy like Amar'e having a slow start, or Derrick Rose looking for his shot, but more about guys who either have missed time or threaten to miss time. That's why it is so important to not go after too many of these players at the same time.

I'm currently battling Kevin Martin's woes and Jason Richardson's woes. Those are two that I fully well expected and prepared for. On top of that David West and Joakim Noah are now battling foot/ankle issues, and are listed as day to day. The last thing on my mind right now is adding another buy low guy to my team. This just is not the time to take more risk on. Both Allen Iverson and Carlos Delfino will hopefully put up solid spot playing time for me until these guys get on track.

Every single manager in fantasy sports, and especially in fantasy basketball, is going to deal with the injury bug. Not just once, but a couple times throughout the season. There's simply no way to predict most injuries and the best we can do is make sure we don't take excessive risk. If you bought low on the Orlando Magic players we profiled last week, you had a nice performance from all last night. That's something to build on, but I wouldn't go jumping into the trading pool just yet. If you're sitting atop your league right now and dealing with two or more injured players, be patient. The season is still young, there'll be plenty more opportunities.

Conversely, if you're sitting on the bottom of the league and have a team of healthy guys that just aren't putting you over the top, now is the time to strike. You've got a great opportunity to pick up two studs in both Martin and Roy for a cheap price. Particularly if the manager you're targeting has a depth issue and needs players. 2-1's here will be key and there are still some reasonable gems out on the WW to grab. Rafer Alston is beginning to get the minutes beside Wade and it's proving fruitful. He's likely available. Guys like Tayshaun Prince and Drew Gooden are likely available too, both should be solid bench players for you going forward.

If you're sitting on an unproductive player right now, stop for a minute and use this as a learning experience. Realize that even though I've changed your mindset into a buy low, sell high mentality, you're still rightfully nervous about these guys and itching to relieve yourself of the nightly pain they cause. Then think about the other managers in your league who don't have that same mentality. These are the guys looking to sell a cold player at almost any price. These are the guys we need to look for, and target in trades. These are the owners to exploit.

It's a long season and we've just cracked the halfway mark. No lead is to big to overcome, play it smart and cool and we'll all ride this thing to victory.
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