Two days ago I published a post regarding my Buy Lows calls thus far this year and how they've fared. Now I'd like to list out my Sell High calls this year so we can see how they've gone. The hallmark of a good Trader, and a Great fantasy sports player, is one that documents their trades, follows the progression of the deal, and learns from his past moves. Understand where you went wrong, what made you weak, and where you were successful, exploit that. On to the players!
12/3/2009 - Jason Thompson: Thompson was a BEAST in late November and early December. But what a fall he's had. This was a well timed sell call on a player many managers thought was in the midst of a breakout season and headed to the next level.
12/4/2009 - Carmelo Anthony: Ohhh the heat I took on this one! It was well deserved too, since this was Carmelo's breakout season. Still, he was ranked #2 overall when we made the call, he's #10ish now, and we were using him to ink deals for CP3 and LBJ, a good call.
12/5/2009 - Luol Deng: I have to admit, Deng has had a much better season than I anticipated from him. He's never really amounted to much prior to this year and has had trouble staying on the court. Since we made this call, Deng has gone from a top 30 player, to ranked 95 over the last month. Good call!
12/7/2009 - Kendrick Perkins: One of the better calls I made this year, Kendrick was way overvalued then and is hardly rosterable now.
12/8/2009 - Danilo Gallinari: Take me back to this day and I make the same call 10 out of 10 times. A waiver wire player with no history of success who looked like a bust starts hitting 3's at an unheard of clip? Yup, I'll sell that every time. Still, I have to say, this was a bad call.
12/10/2009 - Paul Pierce: You know I got much love for the Truth, captain of my Celts. But that FG% was stupid high, and we correctly foresaw it coming back to earth.
12/11/2009 - Josh Smith: Heh, I honestly don't remember much from this call, except that last year had a big influence on it. Smith has had a great season no doubt, but his value hasn't changed much since we made the call. I'd say this was a wash.
12/13/2009 - Nene Hilario: He was roughly top 20 when we made the call, he's roughly top 20 now. Another wash trade here. The Brazilian beast's tank has got to be approaching empty.
12/21/2009 - Baron Davis: Part of my Sell your injury plagued players series. Bad Call here. Even though I'm still convinced he'll miss significant time due to injury, BD has been awesome and timing is everything, bad call.
12/21/2009 - Marcus Camby: Another injury plagued player, and I also included the impact of Blake Griffin in this call. Camby has actually been able to stay on the court, and has been very solid all year. I still believe he'll be injured by season end. Still, bad call.
12/21/2009 - Carlos Boozer: Boozer's numbered deteriorated significantly since this call, dropping his rank from around 10 to around 60. He's now a solid buy low candidate.
12/22/2009 - Andrew Bogut: We made this call right after his 31 point 18 rebound performance. Not surprisingly, he's been wholly unimpressive since.
1/4/2010 - Nate Robinson: 41 points, has topped 20 once since that night (last night's game). Easy call here.
1/14/2010 - Randy Foye: He came out of the gate with a big bang, but after that last game I'm going to step up and say this was the right call. He wasn't going to keep up those 20 point 8 assist lines, and the last outing confirmed that.
Well that about sums up the Sell High calls. I'm sure I missed a few, like I did with the other list, but you get the general picture. 9 good calls (JT, Melo, Deng, Perkins, Pierce, Boozer, Bogut, Robinson, Foye), three admittedly bad calls (Gallinari, Camby and Davis) and a couple that are a wash (Nene and Smith). Right on target at a 75% hit ratio.
But you're the real judge! So what do you all think, are we doing a good job? I know we missed some obvious Sell Highs, can you think of any?
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Grading the Sell High's
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