In case you haven’t been able to tell yet, I find it vitally important to clue you in as to exactly how I come across the various conclusions that I draw in fantasy sports. When I suggest a player as a buy low, or sell high, I do my best to show you my line of reasoning on the player and couch that advice around any potential risks involved. When it comes to ranking players, I’ve done my best to explain how I come to the values assigned and also describe the adjustments made. Today I’d like to start a series on explaining the Tiers system I use to group players.
Way back in December I posted up my first list which included the top three tiers of players in fantasy basketball. Since then I’ve done my best to keep that list updated to reflect current stats. But one has to ask the question, how exactly do I go about placing each player into a tier? Let’s start with the Tier One players.
First and foremost, the Tier One players are going to have the highest rank scores of all players in the league. Each players rank score takes into account several different factors beyond just their current season stats, though current season stats become more and more important as the season wears on. Other factors involved include stats from prior seasons, player projections, injuries, playing time, and how many years they’ve been in the league. Several of you have noticed that I tend to value very old veterans and rookies lower than players who are closer to their prime. Moreover, which stat categories a player offers factors heavily into where I rank them. In many systems you’ll see that Chris Bosh is a top 10 player, however my system takes into account the fact that Bosh offers mainly points and rebounds, and when I can recreate much of his stat line with a guy like Chris Kaman, that hurts Bosh’s overall value. In turn a guy like Jason Kidd, who offers a solid mix of dimes, boards and treys, will get a boost because it’s harder to find a player to recreate that stat line.
Top Tier: So we’ve outlined how each player is valued. It’s easy to see why Lebron James and Chris Paul have such high rank scores. Putting them into the top tier alone is more than just that though. It has to do with the consistency and stability of their scores. In fantasy sports, the most coveted factor is reliability. Reliability has a direct relationship to risk. The more reliable a player is, the more you can count on their stat line night in and night out, the better off your team is. It makes planning out your whole season easier because you know what you can expect. Not all players are reliable, some are streaky, and some play strong for half a season and some get injured too often. No matter what the stat line is, a consistent player (all else equal) gets a boost over the inconsistent one. I’ll take the guy whose scoring ranges from 18-22 points a night versus the guy whose scoring ranges from 15-25 a night any day. Even though they both average 20 PPG, that reliability is key to my success.
Top Tier players are those that are both dominant and reliable. They’re the guys who are going to give you that dominant stat line night in and night out. It is with confidence that I can say LBJ and CP3 will be the top two players (barring an unforeseen injury) for the rest of the season. In contrast, their separation from the second tier reflects either a difference in stat line, or a difference in consistency. The Tier Two player that I would say is closest to becoming a top tier is Dwyane Wade, as he offers that dominant stat line, but his consistency is well below that of a true Top Tier player.
Drafting and owner a player in the Top Tier affords you the ability to check off certain stat categories and focus on your teams other weaknesses with confidence. Regime changes do happen, but they are very rare. In football this year you saw one of these rare instances as Adrian Peterson will now be joined in the Top Tier by Chris Johnson. In the next post I’ll go deeper into the thought process behind Tier Two players and their separation from the third tier. I hope you find this useful.
In the meantime, let us hear from you. Are there any factors that I might not cover or didn’t bring up that you find useful in valuing players?
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment