Breaking Down The Suns

Obviously we are all glued to the Phoenix Suns and their stunning change in rotation. Most notably, Channing Frye has taken a seat to Robin (The Other) Lopez, and Jason Richardson has taken a seat to Leandro Barbosa. This decision really came unannounced and although both the club and the players were on a bit of a cold streak, it seemed out of sorts. I’ll break down both players below and give you my opinion regarding their fantasy status going forward. As I like to do in these cases, I waited until now so we could have a few data points and some more coverage from the coach to gather an opinion.

First and foremost, Channing Frye was tired. Over the 2007 and 2008 seasons, Frye averaged 17 minutes and 11 minutes respectively. This season he’s averaged 30 minutes. Simple math will tell you that he’s already played twice the minutes he played last year, and has matched the minutes he played for the whole season in 2007. His body and his stamina weren’t exactly ready for this level of play. Gentry’s decision to give him some time off, now that Robin Lopez is back on the floor and up to speed, is reasonable even though it’s painful for fantasy owners. But Robin Lopez is no machine himself. He’s still young and will likely slow down as the season progresses himself. His defensive capabilities offer a nice contrast for the Suns to Frye’s scoring ability and more importantly his ability to stretch the floor and pull defenders out of the paint.

What I can assure you is that what we are witnessing right now is not the final decision for what will happen going forward. Frye will not be relegated to 15 minutes off the bench and Lopez will not see north of 30 MPG each night. Likely there will be a happy medium found with both players seeing a roughly equal split of time at about 25 MPG each. Look for the Suns to rest Frye until we get through the All-Star break, then ramp back up his production. Whether he or Lopez gets to be the starter is of little importance to me. Sure the starter will play more minutes with Steve Nash, but Goran Dragic has shown that he too can run the floor in limited spans.

Channing Frye went to High School in Arizona, then played college ball in Arizona, and now plays for the Suns. He’s a humble and hungry guy who is dedicated to becoming a better player. His progression in the NBA has been nothing short of outstanding given the development of an outside game that he never had before. The Suns want him to shoot more, take it when he has it, and not focus on the results. I believe he will step up to this challenge and re-emerge as fantasy worthy. If you have room to stash him on the bench, do so until those MPG start to rise. I don’t think he’ll reach the level we saw in the first half of the season, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be worthless. If you don’t have the room, and there is a better option on the WW, feel free to take the plunge. Still, keep your eye on him and those MPG and act quick when the time comes.

Jason Richardson is a different story altogether. He isn’t tired; he’s just been battling these cold streaks. Last night he once again rewarded me for sticking by his side and continuing to play him. 28 minutes, 26 points, 7 boards, 2 treys and he shot 71% from the floor. Those are J-Rich type numbers. At first, I didn’t expect they would keep J-Rich out of the starting lineup for Barbosa. Now I’m starting to hope they do. So long as he’s getting the minutes, coming off the bench could prove to be a boon for his fantasy numbers. Remember, when that second unit comes on, he instantly becomes the focal scorer for the offense. What this does do is destroy the value of Jared Dudley, who was occupying that space through the beginning of the season.

I still believe J-Rich can be an integral contributor to any fantasy squad. I too am frustrated by the lack of consistency, but if Alvin Gentry is worth anything, this might be just the move he needed to stay on track. You simply can’t ignore all the areas he helps in, even when his scoring totals are down.

My advice? Send Frye to your bench just like the Suns did. Wait for those MPG to go north of 25, and see where his numbers fall before making any decisions. This guy has a lot of heart and he’s going to make the best of every opportunity he gets. Jason Richardson is still a bona fide starter on any squad. These cold streaks are frustrating, but so far they’ve been short and sweet and he’s rebounded with an ‘I still have it’ game’. He’s a good guy to target in a buy low opportunity, not a good target to be selling right now. Most every player has ups and downs and it’s important to not over react during either. I advised many of you early on to sell Frye high, and wish I was a bit more vocal on that. But now we are where we are and need to make sure we stay focused going forward. This is how WE dominate.