Saturday, December 19, 2009

The 'From Way Downtown' Specialist

Assists are such a tough category to come by, and it's even harder to find a dominant contributor in that category, but even if you do the impact they will have on your team is somewhat muted because on some level, every player gets assists so the marginal contribution is less. The same can not be said for Three Pointers, in fact there are many players who don't even attempt a trey at all during the season. For this reason, a top notch outside shooter can have a big impact on your squad.

I've notcied that many people will come to me with their Sauce and we'll both see that they are down in Three Pointers. I'll look over the roster and see Spencer Hawes or Paul Milsap or Corey Maggette sitting in their UTIL slot. These guys aren't really helping you out in any categories, their basically sitting right on the average. While they might have a good ranking, they aren't helping your team like The Sweet Shooting Peja Stojakovic would.

Born in Belgrade, from the former Yugoslavia, Peja was once considered fantasy gold. His unorthodox shooting style has been a success in the NBA for many years, and his proficiency beyond the arc has helped a great many fantasy baskeball teams. However time and injuries have caught up to Peja's game, slowing him a bit, and what we're left with is our current Three Point Shooting Specialist. Let's take a peak at those numbers:

PEJA STOJAKOVIC
CAT 2009
PTS 12.5
AST 1.3
3's 2.7!!!
REB 3.7
STL 0.5
BLK 0.1
TO 0.6
FG 41.2
FT 86.2

Comparing Peja vs. The Sauce, you'll see that your team will take a slight ding in Dimes, Points, Boards, and Blocks. However the dropoff isn;t a very significant one, particularly if you've got strong boards/blocks and you're replacing one of the guys mentioned above. Or if you have Jarret Jack, or Mike Conley and you're replacing them with Peja.

2.7 treys per game is nothing to shake a stick at. This can easily be the difference between knowing your sauce and being Super Saucy. Take a current team of 10 players averaging .75 treys per game, swap out a guy who doesn't contribute beyond the arc, swap in Our 3 point Specialist, and watch the teams average jump to 1.02! What a difference that will make.

Peja is currently owned in about 70% of the leagues played, and has a current ranking in most standard roto formats of 105. That puts him pretty equal in rnak to someone like Paul Milsap. If I'm sitting with a squad that needs a three point shooter, and have Paul Milsap in my starting lineup, I'm going out to make this trade right now. Chances are Pejas owner isn;t even starting him right now.

Sure, there are other guys out there averaging just as many three point shots per game. Gallinari and Frye come to mind. But those guys are currently ranked in the 30's due to hot streaks that are nearing end. Why not think about dealing one of them to the team with Peja in a 2-2 deal where you can get a stud player in return AND not lose any production in the 3 point department.

Do I think Peja is going to return to his first round fantasy draft pick days? No, not at all. But for a stop and pop three point shooter on a team with the distribution master CP3, you know he's going to get the looks outside each game, and you know he's going to finish the season in the top 10 for 3PTM. Given how little you'd have to give up to get Peja, this deal seems like a No Brainer.

27 comments:

  1. Hey, Thief
    Now I have that Nene/Bargnani deal inked and I feel good about it. Now all that's left is to hope Andrea doesn't have that injury (or any other aches and pains) slowing him down any more and he soon reaches the level of play he showed in January, February and March last season, when he had just become a starter - he averaged 19.3 pts, 6.4 rbs, 1.93 treys and about 83 % FT shooting for those three months!

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  2. I'm predicting a Ben Wallace Rebounding specialist post coming soon

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  3. Christo, fingers crossed.

    Stodds, DEAD ON!

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  4. here's a break from the usual for you..
    who would you start in your fantasy football (non ppr) playoff match up this week?

    RB's: quinton ganther, arian foster, mendenhall, jason snelling (choosing only one!)
    and
    WR's: houshmandzadeh or davone bess

    also, can't wait for that wallace post, being a detroit man myself, I see every day the impact he has on a team in real life.

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  5. I've also now dropped Anthony Morrow for Stephen Curry, so here is my updated roster, as well as my new Sauce numbers:

    Roster:
    PG - Jason Kidd
    SG - Tyreke Evans
    G - Derrick Rose
    SF - LeBron James
    PF - Kevin Love
    F - J.R. Smith
    C - Andrea Bargnani
    C - Marc Gasol
    Util - Brandon Jennings
    Util - Jeff Green
    BN - Mike Dunleavy
    BN - Danilo Gallinari
    BN - Stephen Curry

    Points: 16.15
    Assists: 3.96
    Boards: 5.60
    Treys: 1.32
    Steals: 1.16
    Blocks: 0.62

    How about all that youth and energy in my roster, eh? :P I can bet there aren't too many teams with a lower average age in the whole of Yahoo fantasy basketball...LOL

    Also, can you even guess how many players that I've drafted are still on my team and how many of my current players were not drafted or picked up by anyone, so I got them off the wire? :O

    Drafted by me:

    LeBron James (rd: 1)
    Jason Kidd (rd: 2)
    Derrick Rose (rd: 4)
    Kevin Love (rd: 9 - dropped him then picked him up again, when back from injury)
    J.R. Smith (rd: 10)

    Taken off the wire (waivers or FA):

    Tyreke Evans
    Kevin Love
    Marc Gasol
    Mike Dunleavy
    Danilo Gallinari
    Stephen Curry

    LOL, how about my stupid drafting and hence the need of all that player movement afterwards! I won't even show you my draft results, cause it's too embarrassing, a real mess - almost all my picks (except the 1st, 2nd and 4th) were really stupid.

    My question is - do you think my deals and pick-ups have been good enough to compensate for the poor drafting effort? And do you think it was a big mistake to drop M.Okur to get back K.Love? I know the bigger mistake was to draft Memo as early as the 5th round, but I'm still worried I might have made it even worse by dropping him in mid-season...

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  6. should i trade

    melo+josh smith=cp3

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  7. Hey Thief, here are my sauce numbers. What are your thoughts? I did one for my starters and a separate one for my bench. It's a 20 team keeper h2h pts. I didn't do 3pts because it's not counted in the league.
    starters:
    Monta Ellis
    Allen Iverson
    Rashard Lewis
    Al Horford
    Chris Bosh

    starters sauce:
    pts= 18.3
    ast= 3.0
    reb= 6.7
    stl= 1.0
    blk= .6

    Bench:
    Kyle Lowry
    Daniel Gibson
    Wilson Chandler
    J.R. Smith (traded G.Hill for him. Smart move?)
    Quentin Richardson
    Shawn Marion
    Carl Landry
    Ben Wallace

    Bench Sauce:
    pts= 10.6
    ast= 1.9
    reb= 5.0
    stl= .9
    blk= .6

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  8. PG: nash
    SG: eric gordon
    G: rondo
    SF: iggy
    PF: aldridge
    F: josh smith
    C: okafor
    Util: bargnani
    Util: love
    Util: curry
    BN: felton
    BN: dunleavy
    BN: speights
    BN: przybilla
    BN: granger

    pts: 14.65
    treys: 0.93
    reb: 6.87
    ast: 3.56
    stls: 1.19
    blcks: 0.79

    i wud really wana trade granger cuz who knws when he will be back. his injury is unpredictable. all the sauce stats are with granger playing, so while he's not, its probably hurting me. can u give me some options? ppl i ask dont wana give big players for him. maybe a package?

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  9. guy just accepted the trade

    josh smith+melo=cp3

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  10. Yo thief. Dropping by again. I got bored of my other teams, as I think they are pretty set (all 3 of my other teams or either in 1st/2nd in 10-12team leagues, 4th in a 20-teamer) so I drafted again today. I started my draft as you said, and invested in LBJ, no matter what the cost (although he was cheaper than CP3), and I tried to get some steals. A disappointment for me was not landing Love in the auction draft, I had a chance but I backed out because I wanted enough for Lee and Thompson, and at the end I had more than enough as Lee went by cheaper than expect.

    Anyways, here is my new team, and it's not up to par with your Sauce numbers, so I was hoping if you could help me work some magic.

    12-team, H2H Most cats, 10 Starter 4 Bench 1 IR
    Team:
    PGs: Mo Williams, Felton, Calderon
    SGs: Courtney Lee (very thin at this position)
    SFs: LBJ, Deng, Ilyasova, Hill
    PFs: Garnett, Thompson
    Cs: Andrea, Okafor, Noah

    IR: Nelson
    Temporary Pickup: SG/SF Maurice Evans (not included in sauce numbers)

    Sauce Numbers:
    Points: 14.74
    Asts: 3.09
    Rebs: 6.47
    Treys: 0.76
    Steals: 1.03
    Blks: 0.76

    Currently running a Felton/Ilyasova/Hill trade for Stoudemire as the dude is PF/C heavy and weak in PG. Also tried a Noah for Davis trade offer to initiate contact, and I'm still talking.

    I'm not really too worried about my lack of 3s, but mainly worried about assists..should I be? With Calderon and Nelson back, do I have a solid team? Any other trade ideas I could go for?

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  11. PG) CHRIS PUAL
    SG) KOBE BRYANT
    G) DEVIN HARRIS
    SF) PAUL PIERCE
    PF) TIM DNCAN
    F) CHANNING FRYE
    C) DWIGHT HOWARD
    C) ERICK DAMPIER
    UTIL) JOEL PRZYBILLA
    UTIL) JOSH HOWARD
    BN) COURTNEY LEE
    BN) CHAUCEY BILLUPS (INJ)
    BN) KEVIN MARTIN (INJ)
    BN) LOUIS WILLIAMS (INJ)

    my sauce is

    PTS: 16.9
    3PTM: 1.1
    REB: 5.9
    AST: 3.4
    STL: 1.3
    BLK: .9

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  12. Stodds, mendenhall n housh. That was NOT an easy answer.

    Christo, dood after a terrible draft, you're in a great spot. Live n learn bro. Love and Okur are like the same player.

    Aaron.......YUP

    Lucky, you're dead on. Deal granger, try to move a bench guy with him, try for maybe Nash or Deron. If that doesn't work, try a 2-2 deal for Nelson or arenas.

    We fly, ha! Boredom, I love it. Your team is pretty good, don't sweat it. Nelson will be a BIG boost. I like the guys your movin but don't shoot to high lol. Illya n hill for Love??

    Aaron, looooooookin good playa playa.

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  13. idk wat to do. no one wants to give big for granger. i offered this deal:

    i get: pierce and murphy
    i give: aldridge, granger, dunleavy

    i was hoping to pick up lou williams but he got picked up, and the owner is thinking about it. idk, if he rejects, u have any other advice? no one wants to give their good players and wait for granger. theres even one report i found online that said granger will be out the whole year, which is scaring me. i have no clue wat to do or who to go after cuz ppl dont wana give a lot at all for him.

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  14. I have no idea why my trade (give pierce, get arenas) got veto'ed but it did. Luckily my friend still wants to make the deal happen and said it might go through cuz one of our friends veto'ed the trade "as a joke". ASSHOLE!

    Anyways, I have another trade in the works.
    Give Tony Parker + Paul Pierce
    Get Jeff green + Joe Johnson

    I talked to that friend just now telling him to make me an offer or else I'm moving Pierce tonight and he said he will look at my roster and propose a trade tonight. He's reluctant to give up both Johnson and Green. I'm hoping Jeff Green puts up some weak sauce numbers tonight so it will make it easier for him to offer him up.

    Which deal am I better off with?

    Arenas for Pierce

    or

    Johnson & Green for Pierce & Parker?

    According to the sauce, I'm weak in 3s, steals, rebounds in that order.

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  15. ok i just did it.

    i get: pierce and murphy
    i give: aldridge, granger, dunleav

    good for me??

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  16. Lucky, tough one haus, I feel for ya. Grangers value is so close to nil right now. I been sounding the alarm on him since the injury occurred. It's definitely a lingering issue. You did well considering, but the work isn't done yet.

    Senn, I HATE LEAGUE VETOES! SO FRIGGIN LAME! I think the Pierce for Arenas deal is better for what you need, but you won't be sad with Joe J. I'm not as high on green as you, I view him pretty close to Tony P. Oh and do me a favor and give a b**ch slap to your buddy, there's nothing FUN about vetoing your boyz deal.

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  17. Yea, I really hate him right now... I wish I could slap him but he's more of a friend of a friend. Last minute invite to our league to end up with 8 teams...

    GAHHH

    Who else can I "thief" away from the guy with Joe J.?
    Brandon Jennings
    Vince Carter
    Al Horford
    Joahkim Noah
    Mehmet Okur
    Troy Murphy
    Andrew Bogut
    Amar'e Stoudamire
    OJ Mayo
    Ray Allen
    Danny Granger

    He's expressed interest in my Andrew Bynum, in a Bogut for Bynum type deal a week ago.

    I want to get rid of Tony Parker as he is not doing well at all and Pierce's numbers are falling, like you said they would. So those are the 2 guys I'd like to trade for and get maximum value for. I wouldn't be opposed to doing a 2 for 1 including those 2, since I can pick up Biedrins off the WW.

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  18. u have any suggestions now? i have an open roster spot now since it was a 3 for 2 so for now i picked up bayless. u have any trade suggestions now that i have murphy and pierce instead of aldridge and granger?

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  19. Hey Thief, typically when in the year do you start thinking about fantasy baseball? they say its never too early to mock and stuff, whats your take on that?

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  20. Yizzie, that NAILS IT!

    Stodds, honestly, I follow the off season stuff, especially for the sox (and yanks). But I won't mock too early, prolly late January. I generally cross over to the next sport shortly after the trade deadline passes. Once a trade deadline passes, there ain't much left to do in fantasy ya know. I'm glad you like baseball though, come late Feb to early march, I'll be blowin this site up ALL Baseball.

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  21. Alright! Well you'll expect to see me on here frequently then. Is it too early for a Top 10 list pre-season prediction from the thief?

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  22. Hmmmmm, alright Stodds. Gimme a day or so an I'll work out some preseason Tiers for ya.

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  23. Hey, I would like to first thank you for your amazing site, your knowledge has greatly assisted me in my rookie season of fantasy basketball.

    I want some clarification on a add/drop between I made a few minutes ago between dropping Josh Howard and adding Roy Hibbert, here are my sauce numbers prior to the pick-up:

    Points: 15.68
    Assists: 3.21
    Boards: 5.68
    Treys: 1.06
    Steals: 1.03
    Blocks: .57

    Yeah, as you can tell I'm below standard sauce numbers and I wish I knew about your site earlier, lol.

    Do you think I made the right move? I figured I could take a hit on treys and steals for rebounds and blocks. Hibbert had a huge game tonight starting and it was against SA so I felt it was a valid performance. As soon as I saw the game box score I immediately jumped on the waiver wire lol.

    Anyways, leave a reply if you can, once again this site is awesome. Thanks!

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  24. What's up Aku, thanks for sayin that. I owned Roy when he was playin well, tried like hell to sell him high, an ended up droppin him. I've been big on hibbert since his days at GTown. He's gonna be a stud in the NBA, I'm positive of that. He's been grabbed already in my league, else I'd have grabbed him too. So what I'm sayin is good move, here's to hoping they stick with him this time. Hibbert could really solidify your lineup.

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  25. Cool, i'm greatly relieved to here that. Thanks Thief, i'll be checking back as always.

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  26. PG: nash
    SG: eric gordon
    G: rondo
    SF: iggy
    PF: murphy
    F: josh smith
    C: okafor
    Util: bargnani
    Util: love
    Util: pierce
    BN: felton
    BN: curry
    BN: speights
    BN: przybilla
    BN: bayless

    pts: 13.61
    treys: 0.86
    reb: 5.9
    ast: 3.63
    stls: 1.16
    blcks: 0.75

    i was finally able to get rid of granger. idk how pts work for a 15 man roster but my team will score 700+ pts, 300+ reb, and 160+ast, maybe 70+ stls (now have 62 with 8 guys playing). im kind of weak on blcks and treys, and i cud work on my %s a little. u have any suggestions for this team?

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  27. who should I try to get for danillo gallinari?

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