Thursday, December 10, 2009

A Sad Sell High on Pierce, and a REALLY Cheap Buy Low!

Oh man I hate to say this. You guys know I'm from Boston, born and raised, so when I deal you a Sell High on a Celtic, it's legit. It was tough enough to dole one out on my boy Big Perk, but now, I have to tell you it's time to

SELL SELL SELL HIGH ON: Paul Pierce aka The Truth - F - Boston Celtics
Man Pierce has had a great start to the year. That's the type of guy he is. Coming into this season we knew Garnett was hurting and needed time to get back up to speed. We knew Ole Ray Ray was nothing more than a role player, something that would become more obvious this year. Rondo and Perk are in that transition period of taking the reins, but they still need the adults on the team hold their hands. So Pierce stepped in and stepped up. And man did he step up. But it's time for him to come down to earth, especially as KG begins to get hot. Let's take a look at the numbers:

PAUL PIERCE
CAT 2009 Career
PTS 18.4 22.8
REB 4.6 6.2
AST 3.9 3.9
STL 1.1 1.5
3's 1.8 1.7
BLK 0.4 0.7
TO 2.3 3.0
FG% 49.6 44.4
FT% 79.9 85.5

Wow, down almost across the board until you get to the last three, and that's where we have the impact. HUGE upgrade in FG%, meaningful one in FT%. This has been enough to boost Truth to a top 15 rank in standard league formats. DON'T FALL IN LOVE WITH YOUR PLAYERS. This won't last, take it from a Bostonian who has watched Pierce's entire career. He's going to fall back to earth, and fairly soon. Cash him in before he does. Nash? Deron? Maybe even more? I dunno, but do it before those averages drop and you're kicking yourself. The best season he's ever had in a long career he shot 47%, the 49.6% is coming down guys.

Buy Low: John Salmons - F - Chicago Bulls
I'm going to keep this a bit shorter than most. Salmons is a great shooter that's been slumping so far this season. As a matter of fact, Ron Artest falls into this category too, but i'm slightly higher on Salmons so I'm posting on him. You should be able to get him dirt dirt dirt cheap. Like, you were thinking of dorpping Beno Udrih but instead offered him for Salmons, yeah that kind of cheap. I'm not even going to get into the entire stat line, there's only one that matters:

FG%
2009 career
39.5 44.5

And the 44.5 is biased low, he's really more like a 46-47% shooter. Salmons is gonna get hot real soon and you'll see it because all those jerk beat writers will be tossing up stories about it. Telling you to grab him up. F those guys and F that advice, we move BEFORE the run happens. We ANTICIPATE the run. Does he satisfy the 3 questions?
1> Is he on a new team? Well, hes a Bull, but he had a great season as a Bull last year so no issue here
2> Was there an injury? NO
3> Is he getting old? No not at all

Fine, done, move. Get him for some piece of trash on your team, put him on the bench and wait for the fire to catch. You'll know cause it'll be obvious and someone will interview him and he'll SOUND CONFIDENT. Salmons will offer you 3's and points going forward, won't hurt you in other categories, and should also give great percentages.

That's all for tonight gents. I'll keep an eye out for your questions, try to help you all out. And tomorrow I plan on an early post about the Psychological part of the game.

I know, the Pierce call stinks. But if I haven't fallen in love with him as a Celtic, you can't either. Now get out on those trade boards and DOMINATE!

11 comments:

  1. what do u think on gerald wallace and baron davis im thinking sell high maybe joe johnson too...

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  2. Love GWall and JJ, they are fantasy basketball jewels. Baron is too, but his frequent injuries vs what you can get for him in a deal make me lean towards dealing him.

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  3. should i try anthony randolph for salmons?

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  4. Wow Pavel, really? I don't know, I mean, Randolph has SO MUCH POTENTIAL that I feel like he is a sneeze away from breaking out. Still, I would say he is the best player you should offer for Salmons.

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  5. he does have rediculous potential, but, i go to school at cal, I see warriors very frequently. The warriors coaching squad have no idea what theyre doing, so i feel when nelson comes back and when biedrins comes back our boy randolph will be an afterthought. so im trying to move him while he means something..you know?

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  6. what do you think about Young on Sixers for Big Ben. I need some rebounds badly. Also Parker for Harris?

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  7. I remember reading you had Luol Deng as a SELL HIGH and now you have John Salmons as a BUY LOW. Would a Deng for Salmons swap work? Will Salmons be the better producer on the Bulls?

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  8. Pavel, in my industry we call that 'inside information', good work. Your perspective makes sense and meshes with what we've seen out of the warriors. Sell away!

    Anony1, Big Ben has been an excellent source of boards/blocks while Youngs upside is limited due to the talent around him. Trade away!

    DW, if the Sauce says you need to swap Boards for Treys, then yes that'd be a perfect deal to make! I'm working on getting Salmons as we speak for Courtney Lee (I am stacked in steals).

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  9. carl says, i just ran across your blog and i've been playing fantasy football and basketball since back in the day when you had to get results fromnewspapers.you sound like a kindred spirit,this is my hobby and passion.i'm in4 football leagues and 4 basketball leaages atm.2 of my football teams are in second place{won't talk about the other 2}and i have a first and second place basketball team,andi think the other two will come along. i just wanted to shout out a hello and i'll be checkin you out.

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  10. I was just offered John Salmons for Eric Gordon. If Salmons is a buy low and Gordon is no longer a buy low, do I keep Gordon?

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  11. Yes! But offer something little back. He clearly wants to deal E Gord

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