Jason Thompson for Caron Butler

Given that we're in the throws of fantasy basketball season, and most football seasons are past the trading deadline, what better way to kick off this blog than with my most recent basketball trade.

Let's start with my sell high: Jason Thompson - F - Sacramento Kings.

Make no mistake, I drafted JT for a reason, he's got excellent potential and is in the right scenario to succeed. Whatever. Rule number one, don't fall in love with your players. JT's averaging a solid 15 points, 10 boards, 2 dimes and a block a game. This is only his second year in the league, so we don't have a great body of history to judge him from. However we know he's been on a hot streak, we know that streak began at roughly the same time Kevin Martin went down with an injury, we know the difference between his production this year and that from his rookie campaign is an increased Free Throw Percentage, and it's likely he's peaking here. In standard Roto leagues he's currently a top 50 player. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see much more upside here. Time to deal him off to one of those managers dying for a young player with high potential on a hot streak. He is not this years LaMarcus Aldridge.

And who better to target than the manager with: Caron Butler - F - Washington Wizards.

OK time for the meat. Caron's points per game are currently down from about 20 the last 3 years to 16 this year. Is he getting less shots? Nope, not really (down from 16 to 14) instead he's just not hitting the one's he's taking as his FG% is down from about a 45% career average to 41% this year. This is a good sign, what with Antawn Jamison and Gilbert Arenas back, it's important to see if he's being marginalized or just taking time to adjust. Rest assured it's the latter. Now don't go reading into the drama stories beat writers drum up regarding tiffs between Caron and Arenas, that's garbage talk. Instead watch a game, Caron is mainly a drive to the hole player who needs to get used to getting the ball fed to him from a true PG again. Other than that, all the rest of his stats are mainly in line with career percentages except for dimes, which are down from 4 to 1. Again, this just takes time getting used to the new rotation. Besides, with Gilbert transitioning to becoming a distributor and Antwan receiving the double teams, we have a solid recipe for Caron to really take advantage.

On to the three big questions for a true Buy Low candidate:
1> Is he on a new team? NO
-This is important, a new team and a new role can seriously impact a players performance-
2> Was there a serious injury? NO
-Players can take time to heal from big injuries, and in the classic case of Antonio McDyess they can change for ever-
3> Is age catching up to him? NO
-This is self evident as old players lose motivation and ability, but is also the toughest question to answer-

Caron currently ranks about 120th this year, after the first month of play, and after finishing 16th overall last year. So that's our first deal, selling the 50th ranked player who appears to be peaking early for the 125th ranked player with a ton of upside. When I aproached the owner of Caron with this deal he jumped all over it. The pain of sub par play had clouded his judgement, he was looking for any exit door and I provided it. You'll always be amazed at how eager and willing a manager is to sell a player to you low.

Worst Case Scenario: Caron keeps averaging 16 points and 7 boards, Thompson 14 points and 9 boards. I lose some blocks, FG% and TO's, but gain a few trey's. At seasons end both players are rated fairly equal in the 50-60 range, a great season for JT and the worst in 5 years for Butler.

Best Case Scenario: I actually think JT could maintain these numbers for the rest of the season. They are solidly average and that where he should be. However I fully expect Caron to finish the season closer to his career average of 20 PPG and 4 dimes shooting closer to 45%. Given the way numbers work, this would suggest a very hot streak coming very soon for Caron where he will beat these numbers to bring up the averages. Look for a run of 25-30 point performances, 5 dimes and shooting 50% from the field.

This kids got talent. The last three years were no fluke. He's still a wizard, he's still young, and he's not injured. Go get him before that hot streak begins!