Carmelo Anthony for Amare Stoudemire....with a side of Derrick Rose

Now I know I’m going to take some heat on this one, but hear me out first cause it’s a bold call. As usual we’ll start off with my Sell High candidate Melo. I do not currently own Melo, but if I did I’d surely be cashing in on this unbelievable run.
 
Sell High: Carmelo Anthony – F – Denver Nuggets
There truly is no better sell high candidate right now, but let’s take a look at the numbers
 
Carmelo Anthony  
Year......Pts     Reb  Ast   3s  Blk    Stl.     TO  FG%  FT%
2009......30.2    5.9    3.4    1    .3     1.4    2.9    48.9     86.9
Career...24.4    6.1    3.1   .7    .4     1.1    3.1    46.1     79.9
 
It all comes down to points right now, where Melo is outpacing his career average by nearly 6 per game! Everything else falls neatly in line, though it’s notable that he is hitting shots at a higher clip from both the field and the charity stripe. The culmination of his efforts came down on November 27th where Melo posted a career high 50 points! Current Roto style formats have him comfortably sitting in the #2 overall position on the season. Don’t fall in love with your players. It should be obvious by now that he can not go higher from here (except to maybe #1 overall) and while it’s true that this might be Melo’s year for MVP honors….it’s only December.
 
Back to the numbers. His current points are obviously skewed by the huge 50 point performance, coupled with two more 40 point performances earlier in the season. Unless you expect a 50 pointer every week or so, the average points per game will fall back towards his 24 point career level. Look at it this way, if you owned Brandon Jennings, don’t you wish you sold him immediately after his 55 point performance? Fact is, Melo scored big on weak defending opponents (Knicks, Memphis) and defenses will be stepping up the double teams from here on out. Is Melo as good as LeBron James? I don’t know, and I won’t know until this season is over. But if I can sell him right now as if he IS as good as LBJ, then by all means, Sell High!
 
But who to go after? I’ve got just the guy to Buy Low: Amare Stoudemire – F – Phoneix Suns
The Suns have been enjoying a great start to the season, and floor general Steve Nash looks to be in MVP form. But while most of Phoenix’s offense has enjoyed the rally, Amare seems to be left behind? Let’s take a looksy at the numbers:
 
Amare Stoudemire      
Year......Pts     Reb  Ast   3s  Blk   Stl.    TO  FG%  FT%
2009.....19.2    7.1   1.1    0    1.2    .6      3    57.1     75.4
Career....21    8.9   1.4    0    1.5    .9      2.6    54.2     75.5
 
Not bad really? He seems to be pretty much in line with career numbers in every category except boards (which is kind of important for him) and has actually shot at a better clip this year than historically. Really it just comes down to Amare not pulling in the same amount of boards, and has recently turned in a string of lackluster scoring performances. But folks, this is Amare Stoudemire, still the same great player. Let’s ask the three big questions:
1>     Is he on a new team? NO
2>     Was there a serious injury? NO
3>     Is age catching up to him? NO
Then there is no reason to avoid Mr. Stoudemire, as our great Mean Reversion scheme suggests some huge performances going forward. I’d expect a string of 10-12 rebound games coupled with excellent scoring performances to get him back on track. Everyone goes through a slump, but the great ones break out of that slump with a vengeance. It isn’t magic, it isn’t just talent, it’s generally hard work and practice and you know Amare is putting in the effort to rectify these things. His last game posting 12 boards is a promising sign that you need to move fast! As of my last check, Amare is ranked at about 50th overall in standard roto leagues, but this is easily top 15 talent we can score.
 
Now in my league, I haven’t been able to get the manager of Amare to budge on selling him (smart guy!), but I also don’t have a Carmelo Anthony type player to offer. If I did, I am absolutely certain that he would be slamming the keyboard in joy and writing me a Christmas card to get that deal done. Everyone wants Melo right now, every single manager. Heck, I’ll bet that he’ll be so eager to take Melo off your hands, that we could even include another player along with Amare. Another perfect buy-low candidate to package in there and take home the bacon.
 
Buy Low: Derrick Rose – G – Chicago Bulls
If you don’t realize how awesome Derrick Rose is, you’ve never seen him play. There were some (stupid) early grumblings from beat writers who attempted to suggest that Brandon Jennings dominates Rose in a ‘This Year v. Last Year’s ROY comparison’. Yeah OK, take that to the bank and see if they’ll cash it. Straight to the numbers:
 
Derrick Rose      
Year......Pts    Reb  Ast   3s   Blk   Stl    TO  FG%  FT%
2009.....15.8    3.1    5.3   .1    .3      1      3.1    47.1     81.6
Career..16.6    3.8    6.1   .2    .2     .9      2.6    47.5     79.3
 
Barely down in points per game, and given his last 6 outings, I’d go out on a limb and say he will top last years mark by seasons end. Down slightly in assists and up a bit in turnovers, but there is nothing to suggest that he won’t match or top those numbers in just his second year on the court. The man is a solid floor general with great talent. His current standard roto rank of 131(!) doesn’t even come close to the truth. Rose is top 50 talent in a bad year, we both know that, but his owner doesn’t. When approached with the offer of Melo, a guy hearing MVP chants every time he steps on to the court, for 2 players that have his gut wrenching every night, trust me you’ll get the deal done quickly.
 
One other thing I like about Rose, the recent rumors about a Tyrus Thomas for Al Harrington trade. This deal really makes sense for both teams and immediately boosts Rose’s value big time. Think about it, you can’t be a great distributor if the players around you aren’t good scorers. Nash has J-Rich and Amare, Deron has Boozer, CP3 has David West, Rose has…… Salmons is a decent shooter, and this season hasn’t been good to him (look for a Buy Low there too) but he is not in the category of those players previously mentioned. In fact no Bull is. Also note how well Luol Deng is scoring this year, yup you can attribute that to Derrick Rose. Now add a scoring machine like Baby Al to the team? I see Rose pushing 7 dimes per game average by seasons end.
 
So there you have it folks, one Sell High for two Buy Lows. You’re dealing off a top 20 player but getting value as if he’s a top 5 player. That’s how you sell high. You’re getting back a top 15 player and a top 50 player, and your counterparty is jumping at the gun to pull the trigger. Moreover, you deal Melo right before an impending slump and snag both Rose and Amare just as the hot streak begins!
 
This is how you dominate a league.